I was curious why Russia hasn’t targeted Ukraine’s power grid to disrupt their ability to transport military equipment, and while I found plenty of conspiracy theories, I couldn’t find a clear answer. I think Russia initially thought Ukraine would collapse quickly, but when that didn’t happen, the strategy shifted to trying to deplete the West’s military supplies.

Another important aspect is the production of artillery shells. The U.S. has been sending over 800,000 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine in the last eight months, which averages out to about 100,000 per month. However, the U.S. produces only about 75,000 shells per year, which means Ukraine is going through them at a rate 16 times faster. The U.S. has also been producing guided shells, which are more precise, but they still need the unguided shells for suppressing enemy fire. The U.S. has sent around 700,000 shells to Ukraine, and if we assume this pace continues, Ukraine will soon run out of shells.

The U.S. has also been looking for alternative sources, such as South Korea, which will sell 100,000 shells. However, this will only last another month, and Ukraine will still need more supplies. The same applies to the production of guided artillery shells like GMLRS, which the U.S. doesn’t have a huge stockpile to give away. The only option is to look into new production methods or importing from other countries. As for attack missiles, the U.S. has been working on a replacement but hasn’t produced any recently, and most of the existing ones have surpassed their 10-year service life. Russia is also shooting down some of the GMLRS missiles, which further reduces the effectiveness of Ukraine’s abilities.

In the end, I couldn’t find many options for the U.S. and Western countries to continue providing the same level of military aid to Ukraine. They will have to reassess their strategy and look for alternative solutions, such as creating new weapons or adapting existing ones for Ukraine’s use.