The large-scale strikes and footage of destroyed tanks and vehicles get a lot of attention, but in reality, the war is a slow and grueling struggle, with attrition, equipment losses, and manpower deficits taking a toll on both sides. The public’s support for the war effort on both sides is also crucial, but as the financial costs and disruptions to daily life mount, it’s natural that support wavers.

One way to measure progress is territory controlled. As of September 2, Russia holds around 15.6% of Ukraine’s pre-war territory, not including water, Crimea, or the breakaway regions. While this might suggest Russia is winning, progress has slowed dramatically since the early days of the war.

Russia’s options for winning are limited. They could escalate by pouring in more resources and manpower, but this would come at great political costs. Alternatively, they could negotiate a ceasefire, but giving up significant gains would be difficult. Ukraine, on the other hand, has already mobilized its reserves and could potentially exhaust Russia’s manpower.

Ukraine’s military is also planning a counter-offensive, which has led to some modest gains, but it’s unclear how sustainable these advances will be. Russia has already begun to offer massive incentives to encourage people to fight, suggesting they’re facing manpower problems.

Ultimately, the war’s outcome is uncertain, and predictions are difficult. Russia could exhaust its own forces, Ukraine could suffer a major defeat, or the West could limit its support. The most likely outcome might be a ceasefire, with Russia giving up most, if not all, of its gains. However, it’s impossible to know for certain.