In August 2014, Russia made a more overt intervention, and a ceasefire was eventually agreed upon, which froze the lines until 2022. But why didn’t Russia just fully invade Ukraine? Ukraine’s military was weak, and it had no real support from the West. However, during the eight years that followed, Ukraine grew closer to the West, establishing close relations with NATO and receiving weapons shipments to defend itself. It also increased its defense spending fivefold.

I’ve found myself wondering what would have happened if Russia had fully invaded Ukraine in 2014. According to my research, Ukraine’s military was a tiny fraction of what it is today, with a budget of around $1.5 billion compared to over $8 billion in 2022. Russia, on the other hand, had inherited a massive military from the Soviet Union, but it couldn’t sustain it. Russia’s economic situation improved in the 2000s, allowing it to begin reforming and modernizing its military, and it’s now significantly more powerful and capable than it was in 2014.

One thing that’s often overlooked is that Russia also benefited from those eight years, as they allowed the situation to stabilize, unify Russia’s control, and build up defenses. Ukraine’s growth and support from the West would have likely taken longer to materialize, and its military would have been no match for Russia in 2014. It’s possible that Russia held back, waiting for public opinion to support a larger action, or that it wanted to modernize its military and avoid another embarrassment like Afghanistan. Whatever the reason, Russia would have likely performed much better in 2014.