When Will Russia Finally Run Out of Tanks? One Storage Base Keeps Growing

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March 31, 2024

When Will Russia Finally Run Out of Tanks? One Storage Base Keeps Growing

Video Summary

The war in Ukraine rages on, with Russia losing tanks and equipment at an alarming rate. It’s inevitable that they will eventually run out, unless something changes or the war comes to an end. As expected, Russian storage depots have been shrinking, but there’s one exception: the 1311 storage facility just outside Yangel. This anomaly has raised questions about the impact on Russia’s remaining time before they exhaust their tank supplies.

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Back to the 1311 facility. Despite being the only Russian storage base to increase in size, it’s a mystery. The facility has grown significantly, with visible tank numbers increasing from 300 in August 2022 to 560 in the latest available imagery. The majority of the growth can be attributed to the southern section, with its garages and shelters present the biggest challenge in gauging the number of vehicles present. There are 20 garages, each capable of storing 18 tanks across and up to two deep, making a total of 720 potential tanks that could be concealed from view.

While we can’t know for certain which ones are full and which are empty, there are clues that might provide some insight. For one, the bottom left six garages have not had their full array of tanks on display for at least seven years, unlike every other garage. Winter imagery can also reveal track marks indicating recent vehicle movements, which suggests that at least two more garages are not as full as they seem. This leaves 12 garages, resulting in 432 potential tanks not visible. The 260 tanks that have appeared since 2022 could imply a maximum of 172 more tanks that are not visible.

If these tanks are accounted for, it could reduce the remaining time Russia has before they run out of tanks from roughly three years to just two and a half. Of course, this is based on our last full count from six months ago. The rate at which Russia loses tanks can and will vary, and the possibility of restoring damaged vehicles also plays a role. However, one thing is certain: Russia’s time is running out, with perhaps as little as two years left.