Russia claims that the second phase will involve securing the Donbas region, which they believe Ukraine was planning to attack. To support this claim, they have released documents showing Ukraine’s plans to prepare forces for an offensive in February and March. Russia is now withdrawing its ground forces from around Kiev, except for select areas where air strikes will continue.

However, many questions remain over Russia’s motivations. Did they simply fail in their invasion, or was it a deliberate ploy to distract from their true goal? One theory is that the large-scale ground invasion was a ruse to draw Ukrainian forces away from the Donbas region, where Russia ultimately wants to achieve its goals unhindered. Alternatively, Russia’s losses may have been so great that it is forced to regroup and refocus its efforts in the east.

A few possible reasons for the ground invasion could be to try to cut off Western countries from delivering supplies and military hardware to Ukraine, or to prevent Ukraine from sending troops to the east. However, it’s also possible that Russia’s true goal was to demonstrate its military might and defend its interests in the Donbas region, which has been strained by the conflict. Regardless of Russia’s intentions, the war appears to be shifting its focus to the smaller, more contained conflict in the Donbas region.