China has been building up its military, specifically, its naval capabilities, including amphibious vessels, with eight large transport docks, three helicopter ships, and over 40 smaller landing ships. While these could potentially deploy combined arms brigades, the question remains if they can do so in sufficient numbers and at the right time to secure a foothold on the island.

Taiwan has built anti-access measures, such as air-launched and ship-launched anti-ship missiles, which would pose a significant challenge for China. Additionally, the US military has a significant presence in the region, with aircraft carriers, overseas bases, and satellite surveillance, making it difficult for China to operate without being detected.

Urban warfare, as seen in Ukraine, would be a major aspect of the conflict, with the densely populated coastal areas and mountainous terrain adding complex tactical considerations. The interval between ship arrival and beachhead establishment would provide Taiwan with a window of opportunity to react and potentially jot forces, making it harder for China to achieve a quick victory.

Airborne and air assault options are limited, as demonstrated by the war in Ukraine, and would likely face significant resistance. The lack of natural deepwater ports and Taiwan’s reliance on civilian ships for supply would further complicate China’s efforts.

Regardless of the initial success of a landing, China would need to rapidly establish a secure foothold, build up a large enough force, and then break out of the beachhead before being counterattacked. The Taiwanese military, bolstered by through their own efforts and potentially by US support, might resist more fiercely than initially expected, making a quick victory difficult to achieve. Without US support, Taiwan’s prospects of success would be grim.

Ultimately, the outcome would depend on various factors, including the success of China’s anti-access measures, its ability to launch and sustain a large-scale invasion, and the level of resistance by the Taiwanese military. The US’s response, such as whether it would defend Taiwan, would also play a significant role in the outcome.