Ukraine Seizes More Kursk Villages! Belarus Bails on Putin!

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August 30, 2024

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As I’ve been following the developments in Ukraine, I’m seeing some interesting signs of a potential shift in strategy. Reports from Russian M bloggers suggest that Ukrainian forces are back on the offensive in and around the Sujha region, particularly to the north, attempting to seize two additional villages, Kka and Kashka. This is unusual, as it seemed like Ukraine was pivoting to a defensive posture, forcing Russia to work harder to push them out of the region. Instead, it appears that Ukraine is launching localized offensive actions, still trying to take key villages in the region.

What’s more interesting to me is that this was seemingly confirmed by Ciri, who briefed Zalinski on the situation, not just near Poov but also in the KK region, where Ukrainian forces have advanced, occupying up to 2 kilometers, establishing control over an additional 5 square kilometers of territory. This translates to a total area of around 2.5 x 2.5 kilometers, which is a sizeable chunk of land.

This tells me that Ukraine’s metric for success in the KK region is securing territory, which they can later use to bargain with Putin. I also want to highlight the potential energy drink alternative, Strike Gum, which I think is a superior option to traditional energy drinks. If you’re interested, I’ll link you to a special promo code in the description. Just use Labor Day 24 for free shipping on orders over $50 and a discount on two or more packs.

But back to Putin’s situation, he’s facing a tough spot as he tries to contain the Ukrainian offensive in the KK region. He’s relying on random volunteers, as well as former Governor’s plan to create volunteer Reserve detachments to help fight off the Ukrainian advance. However, this plan is unlikely to work, as Russia has been recruiting volunteers for months. Russia is forming perceivedly peaceful groups, like Bars, Bodal, and Bars KK, to support the Russian Northern grouping of forces.

What’s more telling is that Putin himself has the authority to mobilize conscripts, but he’s choosing not to, as he knows this war is already unpopular. If he were to rely on conscripted troops, he’d face significant political pressure from Russian mothers whose sons are in the military, worried about their sons being sent to the front lines. This could be devastating for Putin, an autocrat who doesn’t need to worry about free elections.

In light of this, it’s interesting to note that Putin is pulling a lot of troops to stabilize the KK situation, but these are low-level troops, mobilized soldiers, and under-trained contract soldiers. They’re being sent to the region, primarily from the Zapo Chron Province, where Ukraine is already taking advantage of this by regaining some positions.

In other news, the rumors about Belarus potentially invading Ukraine have been confirmed as false. Lucas Senos, the Belarusian military’s highest-ranking officer, has stated that Belarus will not send its troops to Ukraine, citing that they will only defend their country if attacked. This suggests that Belarus was simply trying to flex its military muscles to deter Ukraine from taking action. I think we can both agree that Belarus’ true intentions are to stay out of this conflict.