Zelensky unveiling victory plan on Oct. 16: part will be disclosed only to parliamentary leaders, top lawmaker says

October 15, 2024

By Ukraine

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky intends to present his much-debated victory plan during an address to parliament on Oct. 16, with more sensitive details revealed to faction leaders of the legislature, the parliamentary leader of the ruling party told the Kyiv Independent.

The Ukrainian leadership has so far revealed only certain points and general outlines of the five-step plan, stopping short of disclosing it in full.

Zelensky has already pitched the plan to U.S. President Joe Biden and European leaders in an effort to drum up international support behind what Kyiv calls a path toward a just and lasting peace.

However, more details are now set to be revealed to Ukrainian lawmakers and the public.

David Arakhamia, the leader of Zelensky's Servant of the People parliamentary group, said he expects only part of the plan to be fully declassified during the Oct. 16 session.

"I think part will be declassified, and the other part will be presented to the leaders of (parliamentary groups)," Arakhamia said in comments to the Kyiv Independent.

Once part of the plan is unveiled in the parliament, it will become accessible to the general public, the lawmaker added. According to Arakhamia, the proposal does not require approval by the legislature.

Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko said the purpose of the parliament presentation is to inform lawmakers and society in reaction to "public demand. "

Top officials have already revealed certain parts of the plan, namely those related to Western military and political support for Kyiv's struggle against Russia's full-scale invasion.

The key components focus on military, diplomatic, and economic areas, as well as post-war reconstruction. Specific steps include an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO. Ukraine's cross-border incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast also plays a role in creating pressure on Moscow.

Presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak told the Wall Street Journal that the proposal encompasses a request for greater numbers of ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles as well as permission to launch them against military targets in Russia, a step that the Western powers have been hesitant to approve.

It likely also includes economic assistance and security guarantees for Ukraine and stepping up sanctions and diplomatic pressure against Russia, Fesenko said.

Some parts of the plan will not be disclosed to the general public, Zelensky's chief of staff Andrii Yermak has said.

"The purpose of the plan is to strengthen our positions and force Russia to agree to realistic and just peace negotiations," Fesenko said, adding that the plan would aim to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war and increase the cost of the war for Russia.

Western partners have mostly remained tight-lipped about their opinion of the victory plan. While the U.S. State Department said diplomatically that the proposal includes "a number of productive steps," some partners were "unimpressed" with the plan, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sept. 25.

Several Western officials believe it leans too heavily on additional arms supplies and on lifting restrictions on their use and does not bring many new ideas to the table, the outlet wrote. The Kyiv Independent could not verify the claims.

Fesenko said it's "too early to make fatal conclusions" about the West's reaction to the victory plan.

He added that there is so far neither a positive response nor a negative one from the West to Ukraine's requests to receive permission to strike Russia with long-range weapons and to become a NATO member.

Zelensky intended to reveal the victory plan to Ukraine's Western allies at the Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting at Germany's Ramstein airbase on Oct. 12, but the gathering was canceled after outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden aborted his overseas travel due to Hurricane Milton at home. While the U.S. president will visit Germany on Oct. 18, no new date for a Ramstein summit has been set.

According to Fesenko, the Ramstein meeting would likely not bring any major strategic decisions as "Biden's indecisiveness has devalued the meaning" of the summits.

Time is of the essence for Ukraine, with only three weeks remaining before the U.S. presidential election, where Biden's Vice President Kamal Harris, as the Democratic Party candidate, is facing off with former president Donald Trump. The result may profoundly impact Washington's support for Kyiv in the short and long term.

There are worries that if Trump, the Republican nominee, returns to the White House, he might scale down his country's crucial support, forcing Ukraine toward painful concessions.

The U.S. pulling out would only aggravate the already grim situation for Ukraine, as Russian forces keep grinding on in the east, and the country, with some 20% of its territory occupied by Russia's invading forces, braces for more strikes on the energy sector during the upcoming winter.

"In October, November, and December, we have a real chance to move things toward peace and lasting stability. The situation on the battlefield creates an opportunity to make this choice — the choice for decisive action to end the war no later than in 2025," Zelensky said at the Ukraine-South East Europe summit last week.