With US elections looming, Biden’s Berlin swan song was all talk, no action on Ukraine

October 19, 2024

By Ukraine

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Joe Biden's likely last European visit as president was billed as a final chance before the upcoming U.S. presidential election to meet with key world leaders, solidify long-term support for Ukraine, and work towards ending Russia's full-scale invasion launched over two and a half years ago.

"Ukraine faces a tough winter. We must sustain our resolve, our effort and our support," Biden told reporters before the talks in Berlin on Oct. 18, as cited by the Washington Post.

"I know the cost is heavy. Make no mistake, it pales in comparison to the cost of living in a world where aggression prevails, where large states attack and bully smaller ones — simply because they can."

However, according to a joint statement released by the White House, Paris, Berlin, and London, Ukraine's situation and support from Western allies seem to have largely remained the same as they were the day before Biden's trip to Germany.

It offered no new pledges of game-changing support beyond current levels of weaponry provided or progress on key issues such as authorizing long-range strikes inside Russia with Western weapons, NATO membership, or implementation of other requests within President Volodymyr Zelensky’s "Victory Plan."

Instead, it repeated condemnation of "Russia’s continued war of aggression against Ukraine" and highlighted "discussions" of "plans" for "additional security, economic, and humanitarian assistance."

The vague and non-committal language from Ukraine's Western allies contrasts starkly with the increased diplomatic urgency that has consumed Kyiv in recent weeks.

Yet the reasons behind both are almost certainly the same — the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, uncertainty about who will take over as leader of Ukraine’s top Western ally, and how strong their backing for Kyiv will be.

Recent polls show that in the approaching election, Biden’s Vice President Kamala Harris, as the Democratic Party’s candidate, is in a dead heat race with former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has questioned support for Ukraine and has a history of cozying up to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

For Kyiv, one fear is getting continued U.S. support under a Harris presidency coming at a pace even former NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg has said was too slow and gradual. A bigger one is having support sharply cut under a Trump administration.

Both scenarios have triggered Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials to intensify efforts to secure long-term defense support now and push allies to ease restrictions on the use of their weapons for strikes in Russia.

So far, Zelensky’s administration has had limited success.

"The elections are currently, as they usually do, holding U.S. politics hostage and until the conclusion of it, no significant legislative change can be expected," Benjamin Bardos, a transatlantic security expert from the Warsaw Institute, told the Kyiv Independent.

In late September, Zelensky met with Biden to present his five-point victory plan, which includes an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO before the war ends and authorization to strike deep inside Russia with Western long-range weapons. The plan also has three classified sections shared with international partners.

Zelensky then toured Europe with the plan but has not yet secured the full support for the strategy from either American or European leaders.

Just a week before Biden’s visit, Zelensky also traveled to Germany, where he met with Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Following their meeting, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, and Norway unveiled an aid package for Ukraine worth 1.4 billion euros ($1.5 billion).

But Berlin continues refusing to send long-range Taurus missiles or allow Ukraine to use German weapons to strike targets deep within Russia.

"We are supporting Ukraine as powerfully as we can and at the same time we are making sure that NATO does not become a party to the war, so that this war does not turn into an even bigger catastrophe," Scholz said in remarks to the press before the meeting with Biden on Oct. 18.

`What was on Biden’s agenda?`

Kurt Volker, former U.S. ambassador to NATO and special representative to Ukraine under Trump’s first presidency, said Biden's trip had two main goals. The first was to show the American public that Europe also contributes significantly to help Ukraine in its existential fight against Russia. Trump, who has since his first presidency lambasted European countries for not contributing enough to their defense while relying instead on U.S. taxpayers as an umbrella of security, has repeatedly said that Europe should do more to end the war raging on their continent.

The second goal, according to Volker, was to discuss with allies how they can strengthen the EU's defense industry and provide Ukraine with more weapons to counter Russia’s vast military power.

Volker emphasized Ukraine’s urgent need for more ammunition, longer-range munitions, improved air defense systems, and additional support in the Black Sea. However, he expressed uncertainty about whether these priorities align with the Biden administration’s plans given the looming elections.

"What Ukraine needs is fairly obvious, they need more ammunition and they need it more quickly, they need to use the munitions that we're giving them at longer range," Volker said.

"So those are all things that are on the Ukrainian list. It's just that I'm not sure they're on the Biden administration's list that they intend to do," Volker added.

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Oct. 17 that Biden planned to consult with German, French, and U.K. leaders on what they had discussed with Zelensky during his European tour.

White House spokesperson John Kirby later said that Washington is still reviewing Ukraine’s "Victory Plan" and expects to make further security commitments at the next meeting of Western allies within the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, also known as the regular Ramstein meetings.

Biden had initially planned to visit Germany the prior weekend to take part in a Ramstein international meeting to coordinate aid to Ukraine. That trip was canceled due to Hurricane Milton in Florida. According to the White House, the Ramstein meeting has been rescheduled to be held online in November, though it’s unclear if it will be before or after the U.S. elections.

Catherine Sendak, director of the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), said that Western leaders have and will continue to discuss which parts of Ukraine’s "Victory Plan" they support or want to adjust. She added that the authorization for long-range strikes against Russia with Western-provided weapons is "a hot topic."

"Because there's such a lull in parts of the conversation in the Western world about Ukraine due to (U.S.) elections and a lot of other things, hyper-focusing on this issue (aid to Ukraine) again in the fall, I think, is very important," said Sendak.

The U.S. has already indicated that Ukraine shouldn't expect a formal NATO invitation soon since there is still no consensus among allies.

Although the latest NATO summit in the summer reaffirmed that Ukraine will join the military alliance, Sullivan said there is still "work to do" to get there, including "reforms and security conditions being met."

The reforms involve "the institutionalization of the security support apparatus for Ukraine," Sullivan added.

`US aid for Ukraine and elections`

As Trump has indicated he would be more hesitant than Biden to provide military aid to Ukraine and suggested the U.S. should not defend NATO allies who don’t pay their fair share, concerns have grown about potential global alliance shifts if he wins the presidency.

When asked before the Berlin visit whether Biden has been "Trump-proofing" the U.S. government for a potential Trump presidency, Sullivan replied that Biden is working to make the U.S.’s commitment to Ukraine "sustainable and institutionalized for the long term."

"Since President Biden is not running for office, he doesn't need to be here in the United States campaigning. He has an opportunity to sit down with world leaders and really hash out some significant support and assistance," said Sendak.

However, Biden's visit to Germany was never likely to yield major decisions on increasing support for Ukraine or implementing key points of Zelensky's "Victory Plan," such as a NATO invitation or permission for long-range strikes, according to Volker.

"The main reason is the same as always — fear of escalation. Fear that Russia would view this as NATO playing a direct role in attacking Russia, fear of nuclear usage…," he said. His comments refer to the Biden administration’s long-lasting fear of Russia pulling allies into the war, potentially by conducting nuclear missile strikes on Ukraine.

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Any significant decision to increase support for Ukraine will likely be postponed until after the U.S. election also because Biden’s administration is wary of Trump accusing them of pushing the country into World War III, which could hurt Kamala Harris’s campaign.

"It’s not a serious argument. It’s a political argument," Volker said of Trump’s election campaign rhetoric that has claimed U.S. support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion risks escalation into a global war.

Bardos pointed to a Republican backlash over Zelensky’s September visit to Pennsylvania, a key swing state, as one reason why congressional approval for foreign aid is "off the table" for now.

Instead, any short-term U.S. support will likely come from the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which had about $2.8 billion remaining for the fiscal year as of late September, according to Bardos.

Emphasizing that U.S. assistance to Ukraine and involvement in European security would unlikely come to a grinding halt in case of a Trump presidency, Sendak said the EU should nonetheless take on a larger role in ensuring continued aid to Ukraine. But not enough efforts have been made to strengthen the union’s defense industry, she added.

Bardos cautioned that EU resources would not be sufficient without continued large support from the U.S.

"While the EU member states possess significant defense industries, it would be close to impossible for the EU alone to ‘step up’ support and fill the role of the U.S. without a comprehensive overhaul of individual member states’ defense industries and forming a united front in the EU, which as far as current politics goes, is extremely unlikely," he added.