Ukraine react with optimism, worry after Trump taps top administration members

November 13, 2024

By Ukraine

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Ukrainians awoke on Nov. 13 to news that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump had tapped Fox News host Pete Hegseth as his defense secretary — the most eyebrow-raising appointment announced so far by the incoming administration of Kyiv’s top Western ally.

Some in the U.S. expressed shock at the appointment of the 44-year-old veteran with little military leadership experience. But lawmakers and experts in Ukraine, a country dependent on foreign assistance in battling Russia’s full-scale invasion now in its third year, reacted cautiously and looked for signs of optimism.

Hegseth’s appointment follows news that Trump plans to appoint Congressman Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor and, reportedly but not confirmed yet by Trump’s team, Senator Marco Rubio as his next Secretary of State. Billionaire Elon Musk and wealthy entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy will head a new "Department of Government Efficiency" focused on government reforms, among other announcements.

Following Trump’s inauguration in January, appointees that require confirmation will take positions in the government if approved by U.S. legislators. Some positions, including national security advisor, do not require confirmation.

"I am quite optimistic about Trump’s recent appointments. First, some of these people have either a pro-Ukrainian or anti-Russian position," Andriy Lyubka, a writer and director of the Institute for Central European Strategy, told the Kyiv Independent.

"Secondly, in these chaotic, unmotivated appointments of people without professional political backgrounds, Trump is very similar to (President Volodymyr) Zelensky. They are both showmen, and I think that after a brief and unsuccessful attempt to get along with Putin, Trump will find in Zelensky a partner who is suitable for him and close in spirit."

Zelensky rose to power in 2019, winning more than 70% of the vote after decades as a comedian and entertainer, while Trump was well-known as a TV personality and entrepreneur before his first election as U.S. president in 2016.

"I think … Trump will find in Zelensky a partner who is suitable for him and close in spirit," said Andriy Lyubka, writer and director of the Institute for Central European Strategy

Their relationship has been strained since Trump’s first term when a 2019 phone call between the two led to Trump’s impeachment over allegations he pressured Zelensky to investigate political rivals by withholding military aid.

David Arakhamia, head of Zelensky’s Servant of the People parliamentary group, told the Kyiv Independent he did not have enough information to assess Hegseth’s appointment. However, the appointments of Rubio and Waltz provided "moderate reasons for optimism" in Ukraine, he added.

One reason is that the lawmakers on both sides have already been in contact, Arakhamia said.

“Second, neither of these (politicians) are isolationists. But in the end, we have to understand that the main things will be decided personally by President Trump,” he said.

After Trump’s election, Zelensky praised Trump’s approach of "peace through strength," saying, "This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer."

With Hegseth, Ukrainians adopt 'wait-and-see'

The biggest surprise among the recent appointments was Hegseth. He previously served as an infantry captain in the Army National Guard doing multiple tours of Afghanistan and Iraq but lacks significant military leadership experience.

To become defense secretary, Hegseth must be confirmed by a majority in the Senate, which Trump’s Republican Party will now hold following the elections.

If confirmed, he will replace Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin after Trump's inauguration in January. His slim experience could make it challenging for him to pass the necessary 50% threshold.

"We have a bit of a wait-and-see" to see how his positions toward Ukraine take shape — as well as how long his term in office lasts, said Lada Roslycky, founder and managing partner of the Ukraine-focused defense and security consulting group Black Trident.

"We've seen that Trump did fire his heads of department — particularly the defense — in the past. So how long he's actually going to be there, we don't know," she said.

Overall, she said, Trump’s messaging and appointees indicate that Ukraine will have to become more self-reliant and produce more of its own weapons.

In the first weeks of the full-scale invasion, Hegseth called Russian President Vladimir Putin an "authoritarian" and criticized Biden for not providing weapons fast enough.

"What’s at stake is repelling an authoritarian who basically is saying 'I want the Soviet Union back,'" Hegseth said on a March 7, 2022 Fox News broadcast. He added that the U.S. needed to be "equipping and supplying Ukraine faster than we have."

However, he has also stirred significant controversy with his comments about Ukraine and NATO.

Just days after the full-scale invasion began, Hegseth described the war as "important," but added, "It pales in comparison to the crime I see in my streets, to the wokeness I see in my culture, to the inflation I see at my pocketbook, to the real border I care about, which is the southern border, which is wide open."

"How long is (Hegseth) actually going to be there? We don't know," said Lada Roslycky, founder and managing partner of Black Trident

He has also echoed Trump’s skepticism toward NATO’s mutual defense commitments.

"Why should America, the European 'emergency contact number' for the past century, listen to self-righteous and impotent nations asking us to honor outdated and one-sided defense arrangements they no longer live up to?" Hegseth wrote in a book released this year.

Caught off-guard by the unexpected announcement, many Ukrainians are waiting to see how he will behave in office.

"It’s hard to say now what kind of defense secretary he will be. I understand that one of the main criteria for Trump when he selects people for his administration is their loyalty, which is quite natural," said Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee in Ukraine’s parliament.

"At the end of the day, what matters is how he will perform his functions and whether he will be an efficient defense secretary."

`‘The main problem is Musk’s influence’`

Western analysts have noted that Trump’s reported picks of Waltz and Rubio elevate two known China hawks to key foreign policy positions, signaling that future U.S. foreign policy may center on China.

Serhii Fursa, the deputy managing director at Kyiv-based investment firm Dragon Capital, echoed views that the appointments announced so far "sound better than expected for Ukraine."

"When we see appointments that are connected to external policies, it's not people who are known as Russian sympathizers," Fursa said. "For us, the main problem is Musk's influence … If he focuses on domestic U.S. problems instead of external policy, we will be very happy."

Musk has repeatedly echoed pro-Russian talking points on Ukraine, including proposals to cede territory to Moscow. While his Starlink satellite company has played a crucial role in helping Ukraine’s Armed Forces, he has called to reduce aid to Ukraine and also reportedly has been communicating with Putin and other Kremlin officials since late 2022, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Ramaswamy, meanwhile, has been a vocal critic of providing military aid to Kyiv and advocated for the recognition of occupied territories as Russian since they are "Russian speaking." ‌‌

Stanislav Zhelikhovskyi, a Ukrainian political scientist and a corresponding member of the Ukrainian Academy of Geopolitics and Geostrategy, said that his expectations for Musk are "not positive," though there was still a chance that his appointment was related to the negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine.

"Ramaswamy, in my opinion, is one of the most controversial appointments," Zhelikhovskyi added, highlighting Ramaswamy’s opposition to Ukraine’s membership in NATO and his support for the possibility of conceding territory to Russia.

"This cannot help but be alarming, given Trump's possible future arrangements with Putin," he said.

“For us, the main problem is Musk's influence," said Serhii Fursa, deputy managing director at Dragon Capital

Responding to the appointment of Musk and Ramaswamy, Arakhamia told the Kyiv Independent, "We will work with everyone."

"Once all the new appointees have access to intelligence reports and other classified material, I suppose a lot can change in their own assessments of the situation," Arakhamia added.

Kate Tsurkan, Dominic Culverwell, Chris York, Martin Fornusek, Dinara Khalilova, and Natalia Yermak contributing reporting.

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