Ukraine lost 3,600 km² to Russia in 2024, up to 20 km² daily in November

Ukraine lost control of over 3,600 square kilometers of territory in 2024, with Russian forces capturing up to 20 square kilometers daily during their most aggressive advances, according to data from the DeepState monitoring service summarized by the Mil.in.ua.

This marks a significant escalation compared to 2023, when Ukraine lost 540 square kilometers but also regained around 430 square kilometers.

The largest losses occurred in the Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts. In the Velika Novosilka–Ocheretyne sector, Russian troops seized over 2,400 square kilometers, pushing up to 45 kilometers deep into Ukrainian-held territory. This advance has brought the front line less than 10 kilometers from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast’s administrative boundary. Similarly, in the New York–Siversk area, Russia gained at least 335 square kilometers, though exact numbers are difficult to verify due to contested “gray zones.”

On the Lyman and Kupiansk fronts, Russian forces captured 479 square kilometers throughout the year, while in northern Kharkiv, a May offensive saw the enemy briefly control 211 square kilometers, though Ukrainian forces later reclaimed some areas, rendering the operation largely unsuccessful for Russia.

In Kherson Oblast, Russian forces gained approximately 95 square kilometers, primarily during battles to eliminate Ukrainian positions in the Krinky village area. In Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine lost 97 square kilometers, including areas around Robotyne, previously reclaimed during a 2023 counteroffensive.

Ukrainian Advances

Despite setbacks, Ukraine achieved some localized successes, such as regaining control of 5 square kilometers near Kamianske in Zaporizhzhia and conducting an operation in Kursk Oblast that claimed 1,100 square kilometers before stabilizing control over 460 square kilometers by year’s end.

Looking ahead, analysts predict continued Russian efforts to capture key cities such as Kurakhove, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast. Russia may also seek to advance toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and consolidate gains along the Oskil River. Additionally, potential amphibious operations along the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast remain a concern for Ukrainian forces.

While Ukraine faces significant territorial challenges, experts stress that Russia lacks the capacity to capture major cities such as Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, or Kharkiv outright. However, localized advances and continued pressure highlight the evolving nature of the war.