UK intel: Russia’s OKEAN-24 naval drill figures likely exaggerated

Marking its first large-scale naval drill in two years, Russia’s Navy conducted OKEAN-24 naval exercises in mid-September, claiming to involve 400 vessels in four seas and two oceans, as per the British Defense Ministry’s October 13 intelligence report. The report, however, says Russia’s figures were “grossly exaggerated,”since there are “currently only around 300 vessels available to take part.”

Over 2.5 years of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine destroyed at least 1/3 of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, using naval drones and missiles. Most of the remaining vessels of the fleet retreated from the main base in Sevastopol to more remote locations outside the range of Ukrainian missiles. This explains, why Russia carried out no Okean-2024 events in the Black Sea.

The UK Defense Ministry wrote:

• Between 10 and 16 September 2024, the Russian Federation Navy (RFN) conducted OKEAN-24, a large-scale strategic exercise. This followed a two-year pause on any large-scale exercises by the Russian armed forces. Up until 2022, Russia would conduct an annual exercise involving all its armed forces — the Joint Strategic Exercise (JSE) — but the last two have been cancelled almost certainly as a consequence of the demands of the war in Ukraine.
• OKEAN-24 was likely an effort to demonstrate reach and capability in spite of the war. Initial Russian media reports stated that OKEAN-2024 would involve over 400 vessels, 120 aircraft, 7,000 vehicles, and 90,000 personnel, with units conducting operations in the Barents, Baltic, Mediterranean, and Caspian Seas as well as the Pacific and Arctic Oceans.
• The exercise did operate in these areas, but Russia has almost certainly grossly exaggerated these figures as there are currently only around 300 vessels available to take part.
• No OKEAN-2024 activity took place in the Black Sea, highly likely because of Ukrainian attacks in the first six months of 2024.

In July, Russia scraped a significant portion of its annual Navy Day parade, the Kronstadt element of the parade has been called off, citing security concerns, as per UK intelligence. The Kronstadt naval base is situated near Saint-Petersburg on the Baltic Sea.

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