Russo-Ukrainian war, day 988: South Korea may send weapons to Ukraine as North Korean troops aid Russia

Exclusives

Military

Russia captures 490 square kilometers of Ukrainian land in October 2024, largest gain since counteroffensive launched in 2023. The 490 square kilometers of Ukrainian land occupied by Russian forces in October 2024 represents the largest gain since the onset of the counteroffensive, but experts stress that assessing military success requires a deeper look at resource management, troop readiness, and strategic use of human potential.

Russian forces unlikely to occupy Kupiansk by New Year despite attacks, says Ukrainian Commander. Yuriy Fedorenko, commander of the “Achilles” battalion of Ukraine’s 92nd separate assault brigade, expressed confidence that Russian occupiers will not succeed in fully capturing the city of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region before the end of the year, despite ongoing efforts and pressure.

Frontline report: Edelweiss Brigade ambush decimates 75% of Russian assault near strategic Siversk hub. A meticulously planned defensive operation by Ukraine’s 10th Mountain Assault Brigade demonstrated how modern military technology and tactical patience can neutralize even large-scale armored assaults, while preserving defender lives.

Risk of encirclement looms for Ukrainian forces as Russian troops push toward Kurakhove-Zaporizhzhia highway. Ukrainian forces defending Kurakhove may face a dire threat of encirclement as Russian troops advance toward the Kurakhove-Zaporizhzhia highway, warned military analyst Denys Popovych. This strategic route is essential for logistics, and its capture could force the Ukrainian military to withdraw.

ISW: Russian advances recorded near Kupiansk, Svatove, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar. Russian forces made incremental gains in eastern Ukraine, while largely unsuccessful assaults continued across all sectors.

Expert says stalled Kursk advance comes at high cost, Ukraine may need new strategy. With 30% of reclaimed territory lost and heavy tolls in personnel and equipment, former Ukraine’s Security Service officer questions the operation’s sustainability.

As of 7 NOV 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 704300 (+1400)
• Tanks: 9224 (+10)
• APV: 18612 (+20)
• Artillery systems: 20194 (+24)
• MLRS: 1245
• Anti-aircraft systems: 996
• Aircraft: 369
• Helicopters: 329
• UAV: 18408 (+42)
• Cruise missiles: 2631
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 28411 (+78)

Intelligence and Technology

Reuters: Finland tackles Russian GPS jamming by reintroducing ground-based navigation systems. As Russia continues to disrupt GPS signals in Finland, authorities have upgraded radio navigation equipment at key airports to prevent flight cancellations, with Finnair suspending services due to GPS interference earlier this year.

Russia’s new thermobaric warheads in Shaheds prompt urgent safety measures in Ukraine. In response to Russia’s use of thermobaric warheads in Shahed drones, Defense Express experts advise Ukrainians to add a new layer of protection.

Newsweek: Iran enters space race, launches first private satellites with Russian support. Iran has taken a significant step into the space race, launching its first private satellites, Kowsar and Hodhod, into orbit with the help of a Russian Soyuz rocket.

Four new ground drones cleared for Ukrainian army deployment to enhance logistics. The newly-codified land-based robotic platforms support cargo transport, reconnaissance, and casualty extraction.

Atesh partisans: Russia shifts EW systems 900 km to border in strategic move to counter Ukrainian drones. Ukrainian long-range kamikaze drone strikes cause Russia to pull electronic warfare equipment from St. Petersburg to the Ukrainian border.

International

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry: First call between Zelenskyy and Trump signals ongoing US-Ukraine partnership. Both leaders pledged to maintain a constructive, results-oriented dialogue.

Ukraine calls for more weapons to achieve just peace at OSCE meeting. At the OSCE Permanent Council meeting, Ukraine’s Acting Permanent Representative, Viktoriya Kuvshinnikova, stressed the need to bolster sanctions against Russia, close loopholes, and ensure accountability for Russian leadership’s crimes, while pushing for Ukraine’s integration into the Euro-Atlantic security system.

North Korean troops in Russia, Pyongyang denuclearization among topics of Yoon-Trump phone call. The US President-elect and the South Korean leader discussed North Korea’s recent nuclear developments, missile launches, and troop deployment to support Russia against Ukraine.

Ukrainian analyst warns Trump should avoid “peace” that empowers Putin. As President-elect Donald Trump’s team hints at freezing the Ukraine war, Ukrainian expert Alyona Hetmanchuk urges guarantees to ensure Ukraine’s security against future Russian aggression.

Seoul not ruling out sending weapons to Ukraine, South Korean President Yoon confirms. Citing the threat posed by North Korean troops aiding Russia, Yoon says Seoul could adjust its Ukraine support strategy.

Orbán urges EU to rethink Ukraine aid strategy following Trump’s election victory. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has warned EU leaders that Europe may need a fresh strategy on aid for Ukraine. Orbán expressed doubts over the sustainability of European military and financial support and urged urgent action ahead of this week’s EU summit in Budapest.

WSJ: Trump team considers forcing Ukraine to suspend NATO bid for 20 years. The President-elect’s team reportedly considers asking Ukraine to defer NATO plans as part of a strategy to end Russia’s war.

Zelenskyy congratulates Trump on “historic landslide” US presidential victory in “excellent” phone call. Ukraine’s President emphasizes the importance of US leadership globally and says they agree to maintain dialogue and cooperation.

Estonia urges European allies to boost Ukraine support amid US uncertainty. European leaders must increase defense spending to maintain credibility with potential future US president Donald Trump, Estonia’s prime minister told Bloomberg in Budapest.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Russia launches 106 explosive drones, injuring civilians in Kyiv and Odesa; 74 drones downed, 25 crashed. The drone assault injured three civilians, while additional Russian bomb and artillery strikes injured two others and killed a woman.

Satellite imagery reveals ongoing fires at Russian-occupied offshore gas platforms in Black Sea. Some fires at the captured Ukrainian rigs continue for over two years.

WSJ: Russia forces Kherson residents to hide indoors, fearing drone attacks. Civilians in Kherson live under constant threat from Russian drone attacks, with hundreds injured and dozens killed.

Political and Legal Developments

FP analysis suggests Ukraine could pursue nuclear arms if denied NATO membership. Foreign Policy’s analysis states Ukraine “can’t avoid considering a nuclear weapon” if it fails to join NATO, with US support expected to diminish under Trump.

SBU foils arson plot by suspected Russian agent in Dnipro. Ukraine’s Security Service arrested a suspected FSB agent in Dnipro, who prepared to attack military vehicles and rail facilities.

Ukraine-born Democrat, who testified against Trump, wins seat in US House of Representatives. A Ukraine-born Democrat who played a key role in Trump’s first impeachment has secured a congressional victory in Virginia.

Read our earlier daily review here.