Russo-Ukrainian war, day 986: Russia plans record winter air attack on Ukraine

Exclusives

Military

Forbes: Ukraine’s Kursk maneuver sparks strategic debate amid eastern front battles. As Ukrainian forces breach Russian defenses in Kursk Oblast, questions arise over the tactical purpose of this operation, given the critical fighting in Donetsk Oblast where Ukrainian defenses are severely pressured.

ISW: Russians make multiple advances in Kursk, Donetsk while Ukraine regains ground in Kharkiv oblast. Russians made incremental gains in Kursk Oblast, near Kupiansk, Kreminna, and Vuhledar; Ukrainians reclaimed positions in Kharkiv Oblast and near Toretsk.

Russia’s current equipment losses highest since 2022. Russia lost nearly 700 tanks, vehicles, and aircraft last month, Newsweek reports, citing an analysis of Oryx’s data, amid Moscow’s pre-winter offensive.

Ukraine neutralizes 48 Russian Shahed drones, 31 others fail to reach targets; bomb strikes injure two. Russia also targeted Odesa with two missiles, which were intercepted.

Ukrainian drone unit strikes another Russian Buk-M2 air defense system in Luhansk Oblast (video). Ukraine’s 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade used reconnaissance drones for targeting and FPV drones for the attack.

As of 5 NOV 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 701650 (+1260)
• Tanks: 9208 (+15)
• APV: 18581 (+43)
• Artillery systems: 20150 (+29)
• MLRS: 1245
• Anti-aircraft systems: 996
• Aircraft: 369
• Helicopters: 329
• UAV: 18309 (+29)
• Cruise missiles: 2631 (+2)
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 28278 (+41)

Intelligence and Technology

Expert says Russia may launch next attack on Ukraine with record number of missiles and drones. A possible record-breaking air attack by Russian forces on Ukraine is anticipated during upcoming winter season, says Ukrainian military analyst.

Ukraine says North Korean soldiers in Russia’s Kursk Oblast receive combat drone training. Ukraine reports that North Korean troops, embedded with Russian units in Kursk Oblast, are undergoing extensive training on modern warfare drone tactics.

Ukraine launches low-interest loan program to boost arms production. The Ukrainian government has introduced a preferential loan program to help domestic arms manufacturers increase production and speed up deliveries to the military.

Ukraine, Lithuania agree to jointly produce military drones, EW systems, ammunition. Defense ministers signed a memorandum, establishing joint production amid Ukraine’s ongoing military needs.

International

NATO’s Rutte says aid for Ukraine and Kyiv’s security pacts are bridge to NATO membership. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Scholz reiterated his opposition to immediate NATO membership actions.

US State Department inspector general arrives in Kyiv to oversee US aid for Ukraine. The visit marks another step in ensuring public support for Ukraine’s defense as it moves closer to EU and NATO integration.

Ukrainian Legion set to begin training in Poland by end of 2024. In a strategic partnership, Ukraine and Poland are launching the Ukrainian Legion, with the first unit to begin training by year’s end.

100+ officials, experts warn of 1938 Munich-like betrayal of Ukraine as US votes. 107 former and serving Western diplomats, politicians, military and intel chiefs appeal for a coalition of willing NATO nations to boost support to Kyiv.

Germany completes fourth training round for Ukrainian troops on Patriot air defense systems. These systems will help Ukraine counter increasing Russian aerial assaults, which is especially significant for the country’s energy facilities and civilians ahead of the winter season.

Australia pledges additional patrol boats to strengthen Ukraine’s coastal defense. The package, including 14 military rigid-hull patrol boats valued at $9.2 million, adds to previous watercraft donations and brings Australia’s total support to almost $1 billion.

Slovak president Pellegrini denies all requests for citizens willing to join Ukrainian forces. The Slovak President’s Office reaffirmed that citizens face criminal prosecution for joining foreign military forces without presidential authorization, as President Pellegrini rejected all pending applications, marking a departure from his predecessor’s policy.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Russia’s deadly missile attack on Zaporizhzhia kills six, injures 23 Ukrainians. Russia struck critical civilian infrastructure in the city at 9:37 with a ballistic missile, causing casualties and igniting a fire, per local authorities.

Political and Legal Developments

US charges American company for bypassing sanctions on Russian exports. Oleg Nayandin and Vitaliy Borysenko of Eleview International Inc. have been indicted for allegedly exporting dual-use goods and telecommunications equipment to Russia in violation of sanctions, with potential prison sentences of up to 20 years looming over them.

New Developments

WSJ: US-bound planes possibly targeted in Russian DHL-linked incendiary scheme. European investigators revealed a plot, involving incendiary devices hidden in massagers at DHL hubs, multiple individuals are under arrest.

Reuters: South Korea confirms over 10,000 North Korean troops deployed to Russia. Seoul and Washington report 10,000 Pyongyang troops in Russia, including near the frontlines, while Ukraine’s intelligence cites even higher numbers, including officers and generals.

Read our earlier daily review here