Russo-Ukrainian war, day 980: Ukraine developing “Plan B” as Western support shows uncertainty

Exclusives

Military

Russia deploys assault units near Berdiansk front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Increased movement of Russian forces, including assault units, is observed along the Berdiansk axis toward the frontline, according to Mariupol Mayor’s Advisor Petro Andriushchenko.

Fire erupts at Russian missile research institute in Moscow Oblast. Eyewitnesses reported that thick smoke billowed from the facility as the fire consumed a testing workshop.

Ukrainian defense expert says frontline is cracking but not collapsing. Despite signs of strain, the frontline in Ukraine is not collapsing, according to defense expert Serhii Zghurets, who emphasized the importance of maintaining a robust defense to prevent Russian breakthroughs.

Frontline report: Ukrainian forces decimate Russian recon units and halt advance in Toretsk using coal mine heights. Russian reconnaissance teams that infiltrated Zabalka district in Toretsk found themselves trapped and eliminated by precise Ukrainian artillery coordinated from terrikon observation posts. The failed advance prevented Russians from securing a vital secondary logistics route to advance in Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast.

Forbes: Ukraine demolishes high-rises to dislodge Russian forces in urban combat in Toretsk. Ukrainian engineers are systematically demolishing occupied high-rise buildings in Toretsk to dislodge entrenched Russian forces, marking a significant shift in urban warfare tactics.

ISW: Russian advances accelerate but remain slow in eastern Ukraine. Russian forces are advancing at just 14 square kilometers per day in September 2024, compared to 1,265 square kilometers daily in March 2022, according to a new ISW analysis.

As of 30 OCT 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 693640 (+1560)
• Tanks: 9137 (+8)
• APV: 18433 (+29)
• Artillery systems: 19955 (+38)
• MLRS: 1242 (+1)
• Anti-aircraft systems: 986
• Aircraft: 369
• Helicopters: 329
• UAV: 17979 (+40)
• Cruise missiles: 2625
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 27840 (+91)

Intelligence and Technology

The EurAsian Times: North Korean soldiers to step into drone warfare shock in Ukraine. North Korean troops deployed to Russia’s war will encounter drone warfare for the first time, specifically Ukrainian kamikaze drones. This experience will likely come as a shock because North Korean forces are unaccustomed to modern drone tactics, especially those employed by Ukraine, which have evolved through extensive combat experience against Russian forces.

Norway to provide $ 118 million for F-16 equipment to Ukraine by year-end. The Norwegian government announced a substantial allocation of over $118 million to procure essential equipment and armaments for F-16 fighters destined for Ukraine, with the first deliveries expected before the New Year, as stated by Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram.

Ukraine’s Security Service detains scientist who helped Russia improve Shahed drones. Ukraine’s security service has apprehended a 72-year-old Kharkiv engineer accused of covertly assisting Russia in improving its fleet of Shahed suicide drones.

Ukraine, South Korea agree to strengthen intelligence cooperation in response to North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war. In a bid to counter the escalating threat posed by North Korean troops supporting Russia, Ukraine and South Korea have agreed to enhance bilateral contacts and share vital intelligence.

International

Expert warns of escalating Russian gains and potential point of no return in war in Ukraine. Above all, it is vital to maintain Ukraine’s combat readiness, the analyst noted.

Austin: Putin cannot defeat Ukraine, even with North Korean support. North Korean troops wearing Russian uniforms and using Russian equipment have been spotted near Ukraine, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said

Zelenskyy says international response to North Korean troops in Russia isn’t strong enough. In a stark warning about the implications of North Korean military involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has criticized the lack of a robust international reaction, likening the situation to the early days of Crimea’s occupation.

Nordic countries pledge continued military support for Ukraine, back Zelenskyy’s victory plan. Ukraine-Nordic Summit, including Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Finland, Sweden, and Ukraine, resulted in support of Ukraine’s path toward NATO membership and measures to maintain sanctions pressure on Russia.

Bipartisan lawmakers urge Biden to allow Poland shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine. Bipartisan leaders of the US Helsinki Commission have penned a letter to President Biden asking him to allow Poland to intercept and shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine.

Ursula von der Leyen: Putin’s war is biggest threat to European security. As the conflict in Ukraine continues, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has highlighted the urgent need for the EU to unite and respond decisively to the military and economic challenges posed by Russia’s aggression.

US sanctions 275 entities over Russia tech support. The US Department of the Treasury has announced new sanctions targeting companies and individuals from 17 countries over their support for Russia’s military.

NYT: Limited Western backing forces Ukraine to search for Plan B. US deemed Zelenskyy’s victory plan unrealistic and too reliant on aid, while the list of targets in Russia exceeds available missiles, moreover, the plan’s secret point also seeks long-range Tomahawk missiles, “unfeasible request,” per US officials.

Ukraine to rely on European support if US aid declines after November elections, says Zelenskyy. Ahead of the US presidential election, Zelensky expressed confidence in Europe’s role as a key supporter of Ukraine, underscoring the continent’s economic and military advantage over Russia.

Lithuania, Ireland and Italy to sign agreements on Ukraine’s recovery. Ireland will allocate 3 million euros for building bomb shelters near Ukrainian schools, while Italy’s Scandurra Studio Architettura will prepare technical plans to restore destroyed educational facilities.

Pro-Russian Slovak PM Fico describes Moscow visit for WWII Victory Day “an honour”. Robert Fico appeared on Russian state-funded TV calling it his “personal duty” to attend Russia’s 2025 Victory Day celebrations.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Kadyrov claims Ukrainian POWs used as human shields at military sites in Chechnya. On 29 October, a Ukrainian drone strike targeted a military university in Gudermes, named after Russian President Vladimir Putin, marking the first attack on the territory of Chechnya.

Nine injured in Russian night attack on Kyiv. Nine people, including an 11-year-old girl, were injured when drone debris sparked a fire in a Kyiv residential building early on 30 Oct.

Political and Legal Developments

Former political prisoner Sentsov says Putin doesn’t want peace talks with Ukraine. Ukraine is currently not in a position to demand anything, he believes.

Kremlin denies talks with Ukraine on abandoning energy attacks. Moscow rejected reports that it is in talks with Kyiv to stop its campaign of strikes on Ukraine’s energy facilities, with a Kremlin spokesman calling the claims “unrelated to realities.”

Russia’s major gas project Arctic LNG-2 stalls under sanctions. Russia’s $25 billion Arctic LNG-2 project has ceased operations after failing to secure buyers for its sanctioned gas production despite offering 40% discounts.

Ukraine and Russia in talks about halting strikes on energy plants – FT report. Both Moscow and Kyiv have already reduced attacks on energy facilities as part of an intelligence services arrangement, according to Ukrainian officials.

Biden says Ukraine should strike back if North Korean troops cross into Ukraine. President Biden expressed support for Ukrainian military action against North Korean forces if they cross into Ukraine, amid reports of North Korean troops stationed in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

Read our earlier daily review