Russo-Ukrainian War, day 1003: Russian plan to divide Ukraine revealed

Exclusives

Military

Storm Shadow strike kills Russian general in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, source claims. November 20 missile attack on underground facility in Maryino reportedly killed 18 military personnel, including Lt-Gen Solodchuk, wounds 33 others including North Korean representatives.

Nearly 580,000 Russian soldiers fighting against Ukraine. This figure represents one of the largest military operations as of yet in the 21st Century, and signals Moscow’s determination to maintain its aggressive posture in the region.

Intelligence and Technology

Defense Intelligence of Ukraine reveals details of ballistic missile used by Russia on Dnipro. According to Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, Russia’s choice to use it in a non-nuclear configuration is meant as a warning to frighten Ukraine and the West.

Ukraine eyes THAAD, Patriot enhancements against new Russian threats. A Ukrainian military source reveals negotiations with the US to acquire advanced air defense systems after Russia’s intermediate-range missile attack.

Sweden backs Ukrainian drone production using Danish model. Sweden commits to financing Ukrainian long-range drone production, supporting defense industry and military technological development.

UK intel: Russia fails to secure air superiority 1,000 days into Ukraine war. Over 1,000 days into the war, UAVs dominate strategies, with Ukraine targeting Russian depots and challenging Russia’s strategic defenses.

ISW: Recent Russian missile strike shows no new nuclear threat. Russia showcased its missile capabilities with a strike on Dnipro using new ballistic missiles, alongside Putin’s threats to the West, continuing Moscow’s nuclear deterrence rhetoric.

Potential envoy to Ukraine: “I’d give Tomahawks”. Former ambassador to Ukraine John E. Herbst who served in Ukraine between 2003–2006 believes Kyiv should be armed better to defend itself against Russia. 

CNN: Russia breaks Cold War deterrence doctrine with multiple warhead missile strike on Dnipro. Russia’s Nov. 21 ballistic missile strike on Dnipro introduces MIRV technology to conventional warfare, breaking decades of deterrence doctrine.

International

IMF: More profitable for partners to finance Ukraine now, instead of financing consequences of defeat. The representative argues that the economic ripple effects of a Russian victory would far exceed the price of current aid packages to Ukraine.

US and Europe consider granting Ukraine “punishing blow” capability to prevent future ceasefire violations. Several officials even suggested that Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Ukrainian intel: Russian forces executed five captured Ukrainian soldiers near Vuhledar. Ukrainian officials note that the number of executions of Ukrainian POWs is increasing in the last few months of 2024.

Russian drone strikes kill two, injure twelve in Sumy residential area. Local authorities reported damage to apartment buildings, one-family homes, and vehicles.

Political and Legal Developments

Defense Intelligence of Ukraine: Russia developed strategic plan to divide Ukraine into three parts. Officials warn that while Russia’s military goals remain fluid, the document underscores Putin’s unchanged territorial ambitions across Ukraine – extending well beyond the regions he already claims as Russian territory.

UK intel: Soviet-era stockpiles sustain Russia’s war machine despite massive losses. The loss of over 700,000 personnel and 3,500 main battle tanks has forced a shift to basic battlefield tactics and undermined Russia’s force quality.

Read the previous daily review here.