Russia’s Black Sea Fleet stays outside Crimea due to threat of Ukrainian strikes

Strikes on naval vessels, the fleet’s headquarters, and other sites have ousted much of Russian naval forces from Russian-occupied Crimea to the eastern port of Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai – with no sign of returning. Ukraine performed such a feat without an operational navy of its own, denoting a strategic victory against a blue-water naval power.

Ukrainian strikes in 2023 were particularly effective in causing the Black Sea Fleet to reconsider its base of operations. Between September and December 2023, a combination of Ukrainian maritime drones and precision missile attacks destroyed over 20% of the Black Sea Fleet, showcasing the vulnerability of the vessels and their homeports. In November 2023, President Zelenskyy reported the fleet’s withdrawal back towards the eastern edge of the Black Sea.

Speaking on air during Ukraine’s telemarathon, Pletenchuk noted that although the Russian Navy has largely withdrawn from vital ports along the Crimean coast, Russian aviation and submarines still attempt to provide security to the ports, RBC reported. Russian aviation regularly patrols the waters around Crimea, while submarines run security.

Additionally, Pletenchuk noted that intelligence does not indicate that the Black Sea Fleet Headquarters are being rebuilt after a Ukrainian strike on 22 September 2023.

According to the Navy’s spokesperson, “…it doesn’t necessarily indicate any plans for a return to Crimea. Right now, there’s nothing to suggest the Russians are holding out hope for this.”

However, Pletenchuk noted the Russian Black Sea Fleet, although battered and weary, still poses a threat.

He stated, “The enemy continues to avoid the Sea of Azov, and their fleet, what could be deemed combat-ready, remains based in Novorossiysk.”

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