Russian troops risk “Bakhmut trap” in Pokrovsk push, Ukraine deputy says

Currently, there is no threat of encirclement of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, and the overall situation at this section of the front is not unfavorable from a strategic perspective for Ukrainian forces, says Roman Kostenko, a Ukrainian deputy, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

The most intense fighting is currently taking place in Donetsk Oblast, as Russian forces have been attempting to break through to Pokrovsk for many months. Seizing the city would allow the Russians to establish a foothold for further advancement into Ukraine.

At this moment, the Russians are attempting to bypass the city from the south, but it does not appear to be a partial encirclement, said Kostenko. Even if they manage to cut off the road, there will still be alternative supply routes for the Ukrainian Army. The occupiers are not looking to get bogged down in another “Bakhmut situation,” when they lost thousands of troops while capturing a city, instead aiming to bypass Pokrovsk.

“They are extending a vulnerable ‘flank’ that our forces can target. It could pose a threat to the enemy as they attempt to advance along such a narrow path to cut off Pokrovsk,” Kostenko explained.

According to Kostenko, for Russia to continue its offensive in this area, they would need to expand their foothold toward Velyka Novosilka to prevent it from becoming too narrow.

“Do they have the strength to encircle Pokrovsk? No, not for a rapid encirclement. They’ve been trying to surround Novosilka for a long time, suffering heavy losses. So, at present, there is no immediate threat of encirclement of Pokrovsk,” he noted.

Kostenko also suggested the occupiers might shift focus to direct combat for the city.

“It remains unclear whether the enemy will attempt to encircle the city or choose to advance into Pokrovsk and engage our Defense Forces. If they commit to that, we could see a repeat of the situation in Bakhmut, with the enemy suffering significant casualties. Will they capture the city? This is war, and predicting the outcome now is difficult – it will be decided on the battlefield,” he emphasized.

Kostenko confirmed that the Ukrainian command is maintaining control over the situation in this sector. While the situation may be challenging at a tactical level, it is not dire at a strategic level because the areas the enemy is advancing on are not critical.

“From a strategic standpoint, we are conducting a strategic defense. The enemy is advancing by 100-200 meters, occasionally 300 meters, but they are taking heavy losses while we are neutralizing their offensive capabilities. We could stand our ground head-on, but that would lead to significant losses on our side,” Kostenko explained.

He expressed confidence that the Ukrainian command has a strategy in place to gradually dismantle the enemy’s offensive potential.

“As far as I know, there are assessments indicating that the enemy’s offensive will be halted soon. It can happen once their offensive potential is broken,” Kostenko concluded.

Earlier, the Institute for the Study of War reported that Russian forces were redeploying combat units from recently captured Kurakhove to bolster their offensive around Pokrovsk.

The redeployment might signal a major shift in Russian operational focus as forces concentrate on a potential encirclement of this strategically important town in Donetsk Oblast. The Russian Central Grouping of Forces assembled a strike group south of Pokrovsk, comprising units from both the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets identified that this consolidation includes elements of four brigades and three regiments positioned between Dachenske and Novotroitske.

ISW: Russia shifts forces from captured Kurakhove for new Pokrovsk offensive

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