Russia may have moved MiG-31 jets to Belarus to evade Ukrainian strikes

October 12, 2024

By Ukraine

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Two Russian MiG-31K jets were transferred to Belarus this week, potentially signaling Russia’s efforts to protect its warplanes amid increasing Ukrainian strikes on Russian air bases.

The jets had not been seen in Belarus since April 2023. However, on Oct. 10, a MiG-31 aircraft, capable of carrying Kinzhal ballistic missiles, landed at Belarus' Machulishchy airfield, followed by a second jet, according to the Belarusian Hajun monitoring group.

The last recorded movement of the jets was at 3:10 p.m. local time on Oct. 10, when both planes took off from the airfield. Their current location is unknown, though they may still be in Belarus, the group told the Kyiv Independent.

The unexpected arrival has prompted speculation from Ukrainian officials and military experts.

One possible reason for moving the jets to Belarus is that Russia is trying to protect them after successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian airfields, said Peter Layton, associate fellow at RUSI, visiting fellow at Griffith Asia Institute, and former Australian Air Force officer.

"There are only a limited number of MiG-31s – keeping them safe is important," Layton told the Kyiv Independent.

"The MiG-31s can be based in Belarus, and then fly into Russian airspace to launch their weapons, and later return to Belarus, where they are considered safer."

At the start of the full-scale invasion, Russia reportedly had 12 MiG-31s in service. However, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s Savasleyka airbase on Aug. 16 destroyed at least one MiG-31 and possibly damaged another, a military intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent.

Two other attacks also targeted MiG-31s, including a strike on Savasleyka on Aug. 13 that damaged a jet, and attacks on May 15 at the Belbek airfield in occupied Crimea that damaged or destroyed two MiG-31s.

Despite these losses, Russia can still replenish its fleet, said Bohdan Dolintse, head of the Institute of Management and Strategies, though repairing the damaged aircraft could take up to a year.

The jets can fly at speeds of up to 3,000 kilometers per hour and launch Kinzhal missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometers, putting all of Ukraine at risk. Stationing them in Belarus also places them closer to the front lines, expanding their combat range, Layton noted.

The Belarusian Hajun Group suggested the MiG-31s could be undergoing system checks in Belarus or conducting tests with the Belarusian Air Force.

Another possibility is that Russia is preparing for a major attack on Ukraine, similar to the Aug. 26 mass strikes that devastated Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, said retired Ukrainian Armed Forces Major Oleksii Hetman.

With much of Ukraine’s air defense unable to intercept Kinzhals, air raid alerts are triggered across the country whenever a MiG-31 takes off. Only Patriot and SAMP/T air defense systems are capable of downing the missiles.

President Volodymyr Zelensky warned the UN Security Council on Sept. 25 that Russia is preparing an attack on three nuclear power plants as part of a strategy to dismantle Ukraine’s energy grid before winter.

Andrii Kovalenko, head of the counter-disinformation department at Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, believes Russia could also be planning a provocation against Belarus to blame Ukraine.

He pointed to a Russian drone that exploded near the Mozyr Oil Refinery, close to the Ukrainian border, on Oct. 4. "After the strike of the Russian Shahed near Mozyr (…) it became clear that Russia could be preparing a provocation against Belarus," he wrote on Telegram.

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