Russia may attack NATO territory by 2030, warns German defense minister

Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned on 22 December that Germany must prepare for Russian hybrid warfare attacks, particularly emphasizing that his country is often the focus of such operations, according to DW and Welt. He also warned of a potential Russian threat to NATO around 2030.

Commenting to the Funke Mediengruppe newspaper group, Pistorius noted:

“[Russia’s President] Putin is engaging in hybrid attacks, and Germany is particularly in focus,” he said, according to DW. “He knows us well, Putin knows how to make pinpricks in us.”

The German Defense Minister, as reported by Welt, highlighted various forms of Russian hybrid warfare, including attacks on infrastructure, energy supply, and activities in the North and Baltic Seas. He also pointed to social media campaigns and election interference attempts.

Pistorius specifically addressed concerns about Russian influence on German politics, telling Funke Mediengruppe that there are efforts toward “the financing of voices, such as AfD and BSW, claiming that we are not concerned with our own protection, but are heading for a war with Russia.“

“This is all part of Putin’s strategy to unsettle our society and drive it apart,” said Pistorius, adding: “We must do everything we can to prevent Putin’s strategy from working.”

While Pistorius stated that there is no immediate military threat from Russia to NATO, he warned about future scenarios. According to DW, Russia’s military production has significantly increased, with the country now producing more weapons and ammunition in months than all European Union states combined produce in a year.

“From 2029 or 2030, Putin could have rearmed to the extent that Russia would be capable of attacking NATO,” Pistorius said. “We must also expect that in the next few years, Putin could test how united NATO really is by making an advance in one place or another of the Alliance’s territory.“

German Military Development In response to these challenges, Germany has initiated several military enhancement programs. DW says Pistorius earlier disclosed Berlin’s plans to increase its armed forces to 230,000 personnel from the current target of 203,000. The German Navy received approval for acquiring four advanced submarines in a 4.7 billion euro deal with ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems.

Russia has long acted as though it’s at war with the West, conducting assassinations, arson, and sabotage even as the West continues to operate under peacetime norms. Russian intelligence has been implicated in multiple high-profile attacks, including assassinating Chechen dissidents abroad, a 2018 nerve agent attack in the UK that killed British national Dawn Sturgess, and an assassination plot against Germany’s Rheinmetall CEO this year. Russian-backed arson and sabotage have also targeted sites in Poland, Slovakia, the Baltic states, Bulgaria, and the UK.

Related: