Majority of Ukrainians support nuclear weapons restoration, new poll shows

According to a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) between 2-17 December 2024 and published on 23 December, 73% of Ukrainians generally support the idea of restoring nuclear weapons in Ukraine amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.

In 1994, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum, giving up its world’s third nuclear arsenal to Russia under the “security assurances” by the US, the UK, and Russia. By invading Ukraine in 2014 and then expanding the scale of the aggression in 2022, Russia made the Memorandum null and void.

The nationwide poll used a split-sample methodology, presenting respondents with one of three different scenarios regarding nuclear weapons restoration.

• In the baseline scenario without additional context, 73% expressed support for reinstating the nuclear capabilities, while 20% opposed and 7% remained undecided.
• When presented with a scenario where restoration would result in Western sanctions and loss of support, support dropped to 46%, with 44% opposing and 10% undecided.
• However, in a third scenario where Ukraine would have sufficient resources to sustain itself until weapon development despite Western sanctions, support rose to 58%, with 33% against and 8% undecided.

Regional variations emerged in the survey results, though support remained strong nationwide. The Eastern region showed slightly more skepticism, with 61% support, while the Western region demonstrated the highest support at 77%. Under the sanctions scenario, support and opposition were roughly equal across all regions, with the East showing slightly higher opposition.

KIIS Executive Director Anton Hrushetskyi noted that the high support for nuclear weapons restoration, even at the risk of Western relations, represents “an emotional manifestation and existential need to obtain reliable security guarantees and finally create conditions when Russia and Russians will not threaten Ukraine and Ukrainians.“

The survey reveals a significant shift from 1994, when KIIS polling showed 50% of Ukrainians favored becoming a nuclear-free state, with only 30% supporting nuclear weapons possession.

The current survey was conducted via telephone interviews with 2,000 respondents across all regions of Ukraine controlled by the government, excluding temporarily occupied territories and citizens who left the country after 24 February 2022. The statistical margin of error does not exceed 2.9% for indicators close to 50%.

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