Kursk operation reveals vulnerabilities in Russian defenses, may shift future peace talks, says expert

In an interview with Ukrainian Radio, Ivan Tymochko, head of the Council of Reservists of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, said that the Ukrainian forces’ objective in the Kursk incursion was to reveal Russia’s weaknesses.

During the operation in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, initiated in August 2024, Ukrainian forces advanced up to 35 kilometers into Russian territory, capturing hundreds of soldiers and inflicting over 20,000 casualties on Russian troops. However, the advance has recently stalled due to bolstered Russian defenses and reinforcements. Critics within Ukraine have voiced concerns over Kyiv’s decision to allocate top military equipment, such as Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and elite units, to Kursk while the eastern front faces critical challenges with Russian advances in Kurakhove and Pokrovsk.

Tymochko believes the operation wasn’t aimed at “capturing as many POWs as possible” or to gain leverage in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia but rather had a far deeper objective.

“The Kursk operation demonstrated that, geopolitically, Russia may posture, but it achieves little in reality. Another key takeaway is that the Russian army is not unlimited, and Russia’s territory is not as well-defended as it appears,” he explained.

The analyst added that the fighting in Kursk Oblast dispelled the notion that the war was at a stalemate. In his view, it also undermined the Russian narrative that “everything was going according to a plan” for the Kremlin.

“The adverse consequences of the Kursk operation are hard to estimate. We don’t know the full extent of the losses or how many goals have been achieved. However, the fact that the Kursk operation shook the international community and forced Putin to justify himself will impact future political negotiations. It shows that military operations can be conducted on the territory of a nuclear state like Russia, which is a significant outcome,” Tymochko added.

Currently, Russia is trying to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast. According to Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi, Russia has also deployed its best units there.

Earlier, the Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported that the Kremlin would not agree to hold peace talks until the Russian army manages to drive Ukrainian forces out of Kursk. The Kremlin believes it has enough time, as negotiations mediated by the US are expected to start no earlier than 20 January — the date set for Donald Trump’s inauguration.

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