‘It will not be like before’: Ukrainian politicians respond to Trump’s win with caution, uncertainty

November 6, 2024

By Ukraine

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With Republican candidate Donald Trump set to become the next U.S. president, Ukrainian politicians have reacted carefully – congratulating the former-turned-future president and emphasizing the need for diplomacy and cooperation, while also expressing uncertainty about what his victory means for Ukraine.

Most politicians indicated no surprise at the outcome, which was predicted to be a coin toss ahead of the Nov. 5 election, but said Ukraine must now work to shape how the relationship with Washington unfolds.

“Trump brings new risks and opportunities for Ukraine. It now depends on the skill of the Ukrainian government to minimize the former and maximize the latter,” Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s former foreign minister, told the Kyiv Independent. He described his reaction to the news as “calm.”

As the results rolled in overnight, it became clear that Ukraine’s top Western ally will be led next year by someone who has derided providing aid to Ukraine and has blamed U.S. and Ukrainian leadership for the war in Ukraine, rather than Russia’s invading forces.

His election could become one of the most significant events of the war, especially if it spells an end to the high level of support provided by the U.S.

At the same time, many of Trump’s statements on Ukraine have largely involved rhetoric and are thin on concrete plans, leaving Ukrainians unsure how his term will affect future relations.

“Everyone is asking how (the election result) will influence Ukraine,” Yaroslav Zhelezniak, first deputy chairman of the Finance, Tax and Customs Policy Committee and a member of the Holos party in Ukraine’s parliament, told the Kyiv Independent.

“And from my point of view, the only answer is that it will be another approach from another administration, and we don’t know what it means, better or worse,” Zhelezniak said.

`A strained history`

Trump’s comments along the campaign trail have sparked worry from supporters of Ukraine — especially his repeated promise to end Ukraine’s war “within 24 hours.”

He has not publicly shared a plan to achieve this, though the Financial Times reported last month that the plan could involve pressuring Ukraine to cede territory or give up on its NATO ambitions.

“Trump brings new risks and opportunities for Ukraine. It now depends on the skill of the Ukrainian government to minimize the former and maximize the latter,” former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said.

In recent months, the prospect of a Trump presidency has pushed politicians in Kyiv to try and forge warmer relationships with him and members of his orbit. With Trump’s victory all-but-declared, President Volodymyr Zelensky was one of the first leaders to publicly congratulate Trump.

“I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs,” Zelensky wrote on X. “This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together.”

The relationship between the two has been strained since Trump’s first term. A phone call in 2019 led to Trump’s first impeachment proceeding, after Trump allegedly pressured Zelensky to investigate political rivals by withholding military aid.

In the years since, Trump has repeatedly criticized Ukraine’s president, while Zelensky’s responses have remained more measured.

Other top politicians, including Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, President’s Office Head Andriy Yermak, and Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk, joined Zelensky in congratulating Trump on his victory.

`Challenge, opportunity, and unpredictability`

Several Ukrainian politicians noted Trump’s lack of clear direction toward Ukraine and told the Kyiv Independent that they have not given up hope that time and diplomacy will improve Trump’s stance.

“For Ukraine, Trump’s victory means both a challenge and an opportunity,” said Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of Zelensky’s Servant of the People party and chair of the parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee. “I hope his presidency will be more about an opportunity than about a challenge. I don’t believe that Trump is going to throw Ukraine under the bus because it wouldn’t be in the interests of the U.S.”

“At the same time dealing with Trump will require from us lots of diplomatic and political skills,” Merezhko added.

Mykola Kniazhytskyi, a lawmaker from the European Solidarity party currently in opposition, said he believed Trump harbored “illusions” about dealing with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He compared Trump’s ideas about Putin to those Zelensky held before his own rise to power, when Zelensky said in 2019 that he would “look Putin in the eye” and discuss a ceasefire.

“Obviously, a lot of (Trump’s) statements during the election campaign — and not only his, but also the Vice President-elect (JD Vance), and the people who support him — could not be perceived positively in Ukraine. In my opinion, they were quite naive,” Kniazhytskyi said. The question, he said, is how Trump’s behavior could change after the reality of his encounters with Putin.

“I do not rule out the possibility that the U.S. aid to Ukraine will not be reduced, which is very important for us,” Kniazhytskyi added.

Some members of parliament had hoped for a Harris win and were “disappointed,” according to Volodymyr Aryev, a lawmaker from the same European Solidarity party. But Ukrainian diplomats must do their best to ensure Trump’s next actions are pro-Ukrainian, he said.

“We can forget about (Trump's) foreign policy announcements made before the election,” said Aryev. "Trump is a political egoist and he's unpredictable. The only predictable thing is that he will be doing things that are beneficial to him.”

"Dealing with Trump will require from us lots of diplomatic and political skills,” lawmaker Oleksandr Merezhko said.

Kyiv School of Economics President Timofy Mylovanov, who worked as an advisor to the President’s Office, said that the more idealistic format of Ukraine's relations with the U.S. under President Joe Biden would be replaced by a more pragmatic one under Trump.

"I'm more optimistic than others," he said, referring to the U.S. election results. Trump’s victory “is not the end of the world."

`‘We need to shape reality for ourselves’`

But even as Ukrainian politicians offered reasons for optimism, many stated they believe a Trump presidency will require significant effort domestically. Some cited a need for less reliance on the country’s ally, while others noted that maintaining a healthy relationship with the new administration will take work.

“The American people made their choice. Time will tell what this will mean for us. But it will definitely not be like before,” Serhiy Prytula, a volunteer, politician, and media personality, wrote on X. “Regardless of which administration will be in the White House, we must help the military, relying primarily on our own strength.”

According to Kuleba, Trump’s victory — and the uncertainty of future aid – will incentivize the cash-strapped Ukraine to better manage available resources for its war.

Kniazhytskyi expressed a similar sentiment, saying Trump’s presidency means “we need to be more effective in governing the state — internally, in managing the army, diplomacy, and external communications.”

Since Trump will respond to American desires, he said, Ukrainians must “make sure that the American people know the truth about what is happening in Ukraine.”

Meanwhile, Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, a lawmaker from the Holos party, said “there is no panic among politicians or diplomats. It's about work processes.”

Yurchyshyn said that Ukraine needs to provide the U.S. with a convincing victory plan and show why it benefits America to continue supporting Ukraine. “But for this, we need to grow up and stop expecting the U.S. to help us by default.”

The Kyiv Independent journalists Kateryna Denisova, Natalia Yermak, Chris York, Martin Fornusek, and Oleg Sukhov contributed reporting.