ISW: Russian forces lose five divisions’ worth of equipment near Pokrovsk

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 7 October that Russian forces have suffered substantial equipment losses in the Pokrovsk area of Ukraine since October 2023.

According to an open-source analysis cited by ISW, Russian forces have lost 1,830 pieces of heavy equipment in Pokrovsk Raion since 9 October 2023.

Since October 2023, Pokrovsk has been a focal point of intense fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with Russia launching major offensives to capture the nearby city of Avdiivka and expand its control in western Donetsk Oblast.

As of 7 October, around 13,000 people, including 94 children, remain in Pokrovsk as the evacuation continues. The town had a population of around 60,000 in January 2022.

According to the analysis, the Russian military lost 539 tanks (roughly a division and a half’s worth of Russian tanks) and 1,020 infantry fighting vehicles (roughly four to five mechanized infantry divisions’ worth of vehicles). The source specifies that Ukrainian forces destroyed 381 of the tanks and 835 of the armored vehicles.

These losses represent a significant blow to Russian military capabilities in the region. The ISW notes that this assessment “is likely conservative given that not all Russian vehicle losses are visually documented.” The actual number of losses could be higher than reported.

The report highlights the potential long-term implications of these losses for Russia’s war effort. “The Russian military command may not be willing or able to accept the current scale and rate of vehicle loss in the coming months and years,” ISW states, citing constraints in Russia’s defense industrial production and limits to Soviet-era vehicle stockpiles.

ISW also reported that “Russian forces have only advanced about 40 km in the Avdiivka/Pokrovsk operational direction since October 2023.” 

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