ISW: Russia intensifies mechanized assaults in Ukraine before fall weather sets in

According to a 9 October report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces are ramping up mechanized assaults in Ukraine in a bid to make significant tactical advances before fall weather conditions degrade maneuverability.

The report notes that the Russian military command likely ordered the high tempo of attacks to capitalize on dry road and terrain conditions before the onset of muddy fall weather. This offensive is particularly concentrated in eastern Ukraine, including areas like Kharkiv Oblast and Donetsk Oblast’s Pokrovsk.

Ukrainian National Guard Spokesperson Ruslan Muzychuk stated on 8 October that Russian forces are increasingly using armored vehicles on the battlefield to exploit the remaining favorable conditions. The ISW highlights that Russian forces have been conducting frequent mechanized assaults in western Donetsk Oblast since late July 2024, and at least four battalion-sized assaults in eastern Ukraine since 25 July 2024.

Additionally, Russian forces have resumed large-scale mechanized assaults along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line since late September 2024. ISW assesses that the Russian military command aims to consolidate gains in frontline settlements, such as Kurakhove in western Donetsk Oblast and Pokrovsk, using these as footholds for further offensive operations.

A Russian milblogger claimed on 9 October that muddy seasonal conditions have already started in Kursk Oblast, affecting vehicle maneuverability. However, ISW notes that there has been no widespread reporting of similar constraints in other sectors of the front, including in Ukraine.

Despite the adverse weather forecast for fall and early winter 2024-2025, Russian forces are unlikely to cease offensive operations. ISW reports that the Russian military aims to maintain pressure on Ukrainian forces throughout the frontline, continuing offensive operations even as muddy conditions complicate movement. 

“Fall weather conditions will also likely constrain Russian infantry maneuver, and the Russian military command likely hopes that mechanized advances that Russian forces can achieve now will limit the number of open fields that Russian infantry will have to cross after weather conditions deteriorate,” ISW wrote.

ISW: Russian offensive in Ukraine to culminate in coming months “if not weeks”

The report also mentions that Russian forces have depleted many of their reserves during their intensified summer 2024 offensive, which focused heavily on Donetsk Oblast. ISW continues to assess that the ongoing Russian offensive is likely to culminate in the coming months, exacerbated by worsening weather conditions. 

“Poor weather conditions that constrain battlefield maneuver will likely contribute to culmination, but the culmination of the Russian Summer 2024 offensive operation will not necessarily result in a complete end of consistent Russian offensive operations throughout eastern Ukraine” in the fall and early winter, as per ISW.

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