Georgian Dream stole 15% of votes in October, opposition and analysts say

A senior Georgian opposition figure says that the pro-Russian Georgian Dream stole as many as 300,000 votes in Georgia’s October 2024 elections, describing the current administration as a “coup government” that threatens the country’s two-decade path toward European integration.

“We call it a coup government, or a de facto government because no one – neither the president, the opposition, nor the international community – recognizes this government as legitimate,” Alexander Crevaux-Asatiani, Deputy Director for foreign affairs at Georgia’s largest opposition party United National Movement, told Euromaidan Press.

His revelations of 300,000 stolen votes, or roughly 15% of Georgia’s total 2,060,412 voters who participated in elections, are backed by the calculations of a seasoned electoral violations analyst, which gives tangible credence to widespread allegations of electoral fraud.

The numerical estimates come amid growing protests in Georgia against the pro-Russian Georgian Dream’s suspension of Georgia’s EU integration on 27 November, just one month after the disputed election.

Then, the ruling pro-Russian Georgian Dream party claimed a decisive victory of 53.92%, while independent exit polls such as Edison Research (41% for Georgian Dream) and HarrisX (40% for Georgian Dream) predicted the opposition’s victory.

Apart from Hungary, no Western nation had congratulated the Georgian Dream on its claimed victory. Moreover, following government crackdowns against ongoing pro-EU protests in Tbilisi and other cities, the European Parliament called to conduct re-elections.

Opposition parties, led by the United National Movement, have boycotted parliament, accusing the government of widespread electoral fraud. As well, in a significant development, Georgian President Zourabichvili has vowed to remain in office beyond her term while the parliament remains “illegitimate” and has rallied national resistance to conduct re-elections.

“Our exit polls, conducted by companies that have accurately predicted every past election, showed a 12-point difference from the final results – a statistical impossibility with a probability of 0.0000007%,” Crevaux-Asatiani stated. “We’re talking about 300,000 votes that appeared from nowhere for Georgian Dream.”

The manipulation was particularly egregious in locations where independent oversight was limited. “Support” for the Georgian Dream reached 100% in prisons,  Crevaux-Asatiani explained, highlighting how lack of access for election observers enabled complete control of voting outcomes in these closed institutions.

The fraud combined sophisticated manipulation techniques with outright intimidation. Before the elections, voter IDs were systematically collected through theft, confiscation, or bribery, then redistributed for multiple voting.

“We saw men voting with women’s IDs in some precincts,” Crevaux-Asatiani said. “A whistleblower recently revealed he was driven between precincts and voted about 20 times in one day.”

The manipulation included two types of ballot stuffing:

1. “obvious” stuffing in opposition strongholds to force result cancellations
2. “soft” stuffing where voters received multiple ballots.

Criminal organizations intimidated voters outside polling stations, and when police were called, “five of our observers were arrested and two hospitalized.”

“In 90% of precincts, voter secrecy was compromised because ballot papers were thin enough for election officials to see through them,” Crevaux-Asatiani explained. While some judges initially canceled results in entire districts due to these violations, the Supreme Court later overturned these decisions.

Crevaux-Asatiani emphasized the broader implications for Georgia’s future. “Georgia has been on a European integration path for the last 20 years… It has brought prosperity, hope, development, educational programs, and cultural programs. It made Georgia part of a European safe family,” he said. “By rejecting this path, they are trying to take away the future of an entire generation.”

He called for decisive international action, particularly from France. “Bidzina Ivanishvili is a French citizen, and France has the power to revoke his citizenship and sanction him, to confiscate his assets,” he stated. “Instead, they decorated him with the Legion of Honor in 2021, which is unacceptable to Georgians.”

Statistical analysis shows Georgia’s “gender gap” in falsifications

These claims have been substantiated by independent statistical analysis from Roman Udot, co-chair of Russia’s Golos election monitoring organization. Using gender composition data from Georgia’s Central Election Commission, Udot identified approximately 300,000 fraudulent votes benefiting the ruling Georgian Dream party.

His analysis suggests the party’s true support is between 39-45%, depending on whether votes were artificially added or stolen from opposition parties.

Udot’s methodology focused on examining the relationship between gender balance and voting patterns. He calculated the expected number of male voters based on female turnout rates using the formula: [Men expected] = [Registered men] × [Turned out women] / [Registered women].

This allowed him to identify areas with unexplained excess male voters, termed “Extra Men.”

The analysis revealed stark geographical divisions. Cities like Tbilisi, Rustavi, and Kutaisi showed normal gender balance among voters and lower support for Georgian Dream. However, other regions displayed significant gender imbalances that correlated strongly with higher ruling party votes.

Udot identified approximately 94,000 “Extra Men” voters – cases where male turnout inexplicably exceeded expected levels. The Marneuli district, already notorious for electoral violations, showed the highest level of these anomalies.

Using a method similar to the Kiesling-Shpilkin technique for detecting electoral fraud, Udot calculated two possible scenarios. If fraudulent votes were simply added through methods like ballot stuffing or multiple voting, Georgian Dream’s true share would be 45%. If votes were stolen from other parties through intimidation or misrecording, their share drops to 39%.

Both scenarios would strip Georgian Dream of its parliamentary majority.

“When the distortion caused by Gender Deviation is corrected, several things happen,” Udot explained. “The suspicious distributions detected on 27 October disappeared, all parties’ results become proportional to each other, Georgian Dream’s results conform with exit polls, and Georgian politics returns to a gender-neutral state.”

Apart from this, a scatterplot analysis of voter turnout vs results suggests that in rural areas, the Georgian Dream secured victory through violations such as ballot box stuffing, bussing in extra voters, and misrecording of votes.

Read more here.

Related: