Georgia sinks deeper into Russian-style authoritarianism amid stolen election allegations

October 29, 2024

By Ukraine

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Georgia's Oct. 26 parliamentary election presented a clear geopolitical choice for the country’s voters, but criticism is mounting that the ruling regime stole the vote.

After years of vacillating between the West and Russia and paying lip service to European integration, the country's ruling Georgian Dream party began to mimic the Kremlin’s playbook, tarnishing the country’s relations with the West.

While most exit polls indicated a victory for a pro-European coalition, the official results claimed that oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili's Georgian Dream had won with 53.9%. The opposition coalition received 37.8%.

Numerous foreign and domestic observers provided evidence of large-scale voting fraud, accusing the authorities of stealing the opposition's victory. The government, which has been run by the Georgian Dream for 12 years, denied the accusations.

Numerous foreign and domestic observers provided evidence of large-scale voting fraud, accusing the authorities of stealing the opposition's victory.

All four parties of the pro-European opposition coalition said they would refuse to join the new parliament due to vote rigging, and the country's pro-European President, Salome Zourabichvili, took the unprecedented step of refusing to recognize the legitimacy of the election.

Yet the ruling party appears set to preserve its grip on power for now.

"(If the Georgian Dream's victory holds), Georgia will be a satellite state of Russia – a mix of Belarus and Chechnya, a fully autocratic regime," Marika Mikiashvili, a Georgian analyst and member of the Droa opposition party, told the Kyiv Independent. "(The Georgian Dream) has realized that the only way for them to maintain their power is to ally themselves with Russia."

EU foreign ministers said in a joint statement on Oct. 28 that they "condemn all violations of international norms for free and fair elections" and "demand an impartial inquiry of complaints and remedy of the violations established."

"The violations of electoral integrity are incompatible with the standards expected from a candidate to the European Union," they said. "They are a betrayal of the Georgian people’s legitimate European aspiration. Upholding the rule of law and free and fair elections is integral to any progress on Georgia’s EU path."

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also condemned “all contraventions of international norms” in the Georgian election on Oct. 28 and joined “calls from international and local observers for a full investigation of all reports of election-related violations.”

What happens next remains unclear.

Opposition politicians and activists have hoped that protests could force the Georgian Dream to hold a new election. Thousands of protesters took to the streets in Tbilisi on Oct. 28, making their demands heard.

Much depends on whether protests or Western pressure will force the Georgian Dream to audit the election results or hold a new vote.

The Georgian Dream did not respond to requests for comment.

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze rejected the accusations of vote rigging in an interview with BBC on Oct. 28 and added that "irregularities happen everywhere, in every country." Georgia's central election commission agreed on Oct. 29 to recount votes at a small number of randomly selected polling stations.

`Voting fraud`

The Georgian Dream's opponents point to the discrepancy between most exit polls and the official results as evidence of massive vote rigging.

An exit poll ordered by the pro-government channel Imedi estimated the Georgian Dream's result at 56%, while several other exit polls commissioned by opposition TV channels, including one conducted by U.S. polling agency Edison Research, put the number at around 40%.

Georgian election analyst Levan Kvirkvelia published charts that he says prove voting fraud in the election.

"Voting results typically follow a bell curve — this is called a normal distribution," he said on X on Oct. 28. "Any deviation from this pattern needs explanation… In the rural areas, there's an unusual 'tail' on the right, hinting at fraud, often called the 'Russian tail.' This pattern suggests ballots were stuffed or miscounted."

George Melashvili, founder of the Europe-Georgia Institute, told the Kyiv Independent that the scale of voting fraud was bigger than in previous elections, saying that "this election was stolen from the Georgian people."

David Sakvarelidze, a top prosecutor in Georgia under ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili, agreed, telling the Kyiv Independent that "nobody expected such blatant lawlessness."

Sakvarelidze, an opponent of the Georgian Dream, moved to Kyiv after Saakashvili lost power in 2013 and served as a deputy prosecutor general of Ukraine from 2015 to 2016.

`Russian playbook`

President Zourabishvili said on Oct. 27 that the Georgian Dream government was illegitimate and called the election a "complete falsification."

“We were not just witnesses but also victims of what can only be described as a Russian special operation – a new form of hybrid warfare waged against our people and our country," she added.

"We were not just witnesses but also victims of what can only be described as a Russian special operation"

Opposition lawmakers and their supporters alleged that Russia was involved, either as an inspiration for the steal or as a direct participant.

Bloomberg reported on Oct. 21, citing documents it had obtained, that Russian spies had been watching Georgia’s government and major companies in a comprehensive espionage and hacking campaign over years.

During the election campaign, the Georgian Dream tried to drive home the message that a victory for the opposition would mean war with Russia, showing pictures of war-torn Ukraine.

"There was a hysteric campaign to scare Georgians with the threat of war and demonize Ukraine and (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelensky," Sakvarelidze said.

`Can parliament function?`

Despite its declared victory, the Georgian Dream is facing a number of stumbling blocks.

All the four opposition parties elected to parliament refused to join it due to voting fraud. The president's refusal to recognize the new parliament was also a major blow to its legitimacy.

According to Georgia's Constitution, "parliament shall acquire full powers once this is acknowledged by two-thirds of the members of parliament."

The Georgian Dream will not have two-thirds, and some commentators interpreted this to mean that parliament will not be able to function.

But Prime Minister Kobakhidze said that parliament would start working despite the opposition's refusal to join it.

Mikiashvili and Melashvili said that parliament would not have full powers without two thirds of the MPs but it would still be able to function under the Constitution. Parliament will be able to pass most laws without a two-thirds majority but will not be able to change the Constitution or impeach the president, according to Mikiashvili.

"It will be a North Korean-style one-party parliament, but technically, it will be able to function," Melashvili said.

Moreover, it is not clear how long the opposition coalition's unity will continue and whether some of the opposition lawmakers will decide to join the new parliament. After the 2020 election, the opposition also initially boycotted the parliament but later reached a compromise with the Georgian Dream and joined it.

Another factor that may affect future political developments in Georgia is the West's position.

The European Union has expressed concern over reports of massive voting fraud.

"We… call on (Georgia's) Central Election Commission and other relevant authorities to fulfill their duty to swiftly, transparently and independently investigate and adjudicate electoral irregularities and allegations thereof," Charles Michel, president of the European Council, said on Oct. 27.

Mikiashvili said that the West should refuse to recognize the rigged election and impose sanctions on the Georgian authorities.

Sakvarelidze said that "the EU has been turning a blind eye to the Georgian government's violations" and called on the West to "take decisive action."

"If you don't shake hands with (the Georgian Dream), they will be uncomfortable," he said.

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`Into Russia’s orbit`

The Georgian opposition and pro-West political commentators believe that election fraud and the increased hostility between the country and the West will push Georgia into Russia’s arms.

Melashvili said, however, that it would be hard for the Georgian Dream to set up a full-blown dictatorship because it had failed to achieve its goal of receiving a constitutional majority in parliament.

He argued that the Georgian Dream would try to perpetuate "creeping pro-Russian authoritarianism similar to Hungary and Serbia."

"This election is the last chance to catch up with Ukraine and Moldova on their path to European integration," Melashvili added. "If the Georgian Dream succeeds in stealing the election, Georgia's European integration will be halted."

Georgian political analyst Gela Vasadze told the Kyiv Independent that the scenario of a pro-Russian dictatorship was possible but said that "Georgian (civil) society would have to be destroyed to implement such a scenario."

`Georgia's pro-Russian drift`

From 2004 until 2012, Georgia was run by then-President Saakashvili's pro-Western government, which implemented reforms to liberalize the economy and crack down on corruption.

Saakashvili's government was in constant conflict with Russia, which increased its hold on the country’s two autonomous regions – Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

In 2008, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of the country, fully establishing control over the two now breakaway regions.

Saakashvili’s domestic support plummeted following the war and the political scandals that occurred during his time in office.

The Russian-friendly Georgian Dream party won the 2012 parliament elections in a landslide, while the country moved from a presidential to a parliamentary system.

The Georgian Dream kept the goal of joining the European Union and NATO but also declared plans to improve relations with Russia.

"You can't succeed in Georgia if you don't promise European integration," Mikiashvili said. "For many years (the Georgian Dream) maintained strategic ambiguity and portrayed themselves as pro-European."

Melashvili said that "the Georgian Dream was trying to sit on two chairs and create a perception of European integration."

The Georgian Dream government concluded an association agreement with the EU in 2016 and achieved visa-free travel with the EU in 2017. Georgia received EU candidate status in 2023.

But in recent years, the Georgian Dream has stepped up anti-Western and pro-Russian rhetoric and moved towards closer ties with the Kremlin. It has also adopted some Russian-style measures to obstruct the work of liberal non-government organizations and cracked down on LGBTQ+ rights.

Amid the improving relations with Tbilisi, Russia introduced visa-free travel with Georgia and canceled the ban on direct flights. Business ties have also improved.

As a result of the pro-Russian drift, the EU suspended accession talks with Georgia, and the U.S. imposed sanctions on Georgian officials in June 2024. Pro-Western anti-government demonstrations have also become a regular occurrence in the country’s capital.

Melashvili said that the Georgian Dream became more pro-Russian during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"They were sure Kyiv would fall and were preparing for a reality in which Russia would be dominant," he said. "But this is at odds with what the Georgians wanted."

Mikiashvili argued that the Georgian Dream would not have been able to stay in power if it had implemented pro-Western democratic reforms and moved out of Russia’s orbit. In that case, they would have likely been ousted in a democratic election, she added.

"Russia is their only guarantee for staying in power," she said.