Former Ukrainian FM warns Moscow plans to interfere Moldova’s election through gas crisis

Volodymyr Ohryzko, former foreign minister and head of the Center for Russian Studies, told Ukrinform that the refusal of the authorities of the breakaway Transnistria region to assist the Moldovan government in solving the latest energy crisis may indicate a conspiracy with the Kremlin.

Ukraine ceased transporting Russian natural gas through its territory on 1 January 2025, citing national security interests as the primary reason. The decision came after Ukraine opted not to renew a five-year transit agreement with Gazprom. After the suspension, Russia cut off gas for Transnistria, leaving the region of 300,000 residents without heating and hot water. All industrial enterprises in the region have ceased operations, while power outages have reached eight hours per day.

“It seems obvious to me that in Transnistria, we are seeing an attempt by the Kremlin to take revenge after the failure in Moldovan presidential elections, aiming for the upcoming parliamentary elections — not now, but in six months,” said Ohryzko.

He noted that Transnistria is currently facing “real problems,” and in a few days, a real humanitarian catastrophe could occur, and the pro-European government of Maia Sandu could be accused of its consequences.

“Kremlin propaganda is already using this situation to discredit this government, and with each new day, the propaganda hysteria will only grow,” believes the former minister.

Ohryzko suggests that soon, one or more opposition pro-Russian political figures in Moldova may “crawl to Putin on their knees” and ask him to ensure the delivery of Russian gas to Transnistria through Türkiye and then the Balkans routes.

“It is likely to happen, and then these opposition forces in Moldova will have a ‘trump card,’ exploiting it until the parliamentary elections. The logic is simple: Sandu did nothing for Transnistria, but they did.

They could say that Moldova, in this situation, should have offered to supply gas and electricity to Transnistria, which it actually did, but Transnistria rejected the offer. So, it has opted for the Russian solution, which could suggest a conspiracy and a specific scenario,” the former minister stated.

In his opinion, Ukraine should have “issued certain statements and taken certain steps” so that Transnistria would understand that Ukraine cares about the fate of many of its residents who hold Ukrainian passports and that Kyiv is ready to supply gas.

However, according to Ohryzko, this could be linked to certain demands, such as the withdrawal of Russian military personnel from Transnistria and the establishment of transparent economic relations.

“The question is whether we will simply observe the events and then react to them or whether we will shape them and pursue our active policy. It is important because if pro-Russian forces win the elections in Moldova, many negative outcomes could unfold — up to a shift in Moldova’s course, similar to Georgia, which would be an extremely negative scenario for us,” the diplomat warned.

On 28 December, Russian Gazprom announced it would stop supplying gas to Moldova due to its unrecognized debts, which the Moldovan government does not recognize. These debts were “accumulated” mainly through unapproved deliveries of Russian gas to the unrecognized Transnistria.

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