Foreign Affairs: Kyiv must show president-elect Russian victory harms his interests

Ukraine is developing strategies to maintain crucial US support under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration while pursuing a pragmatic diplomatic approach, Foreign Affairs reports in an analysis published on 15 November.

Trump’s presidency is expected to impact Russia’s war in Ukraine, as he calls for a swift end to the conflict and questions Washington’s extensive aid to Kyiv. During his campaign, Trump pledged to end the war quickly, though without giving details on his plans, while his aides suggested a de facto freeze in the conflict – a move potentially allowing Russia time to reconstitute its forces and renew its offensive.

According to Foreign Affairs contributor Nataliya Gumenyuk, Ukrainian officials have already begun preparing for potential changes in US support, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ready to work with Trump despite campaign rhetoric concerns.

The article notes that Ukraine has prior experience working with Trump from his first administration, which eventually provided crucial military aid including Javelin antitank weapons, despite initial challenges. Ukraine began planning for potentially reduced US support as early as a year ago, accelerating domestic weapons production and strengthening ties with European partners, Canada, and Japan.

Kyiv has maintained bipartisan engagement in the US, with Zelenskyy’s September 2024 meetings with both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, where he presented his “victory plan.”

Trump’s recent appointment of Republican congressman Mike Waltz as his national security adviser. While known as a Ukraine skeptic, Waltz previously supported stronger military assistance, saying in July 2022: “Let’s win this damn war!”

Foreign Affairs argues Ukraine’s strategy involves explaining to Washington that a Russian victory would strengthen China, Iran, and North Korea while encouraging other autocracies to invade neighbors.

Currently, Ukraine’s focus is on securing additional US funding and weapons in the remaining weeks of 2024, aiming to maintain the strongest possible position before any potential Trump-Putin talks.

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