FA: Ukraine’s defeat would cost US seven times more than current aid

Many Americans are concerned about the cost of aid to Ukraine. However, Elaine McCusker from Foreign Affairs writes that the potential expenses the US would face if Russia defeats Ukraine and stations troops along NATO’s border are “exorbitant” in comparison.

With Donald Trump’s election victory in the US, reports have emerged that hint at a possible organization of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, as during and after his election campaign, he repeatedly stated that he would ensure the war is quickly brought to an end. However, it’s unclear how Trump will push Moscow to peace negotiations with Ukraine. Sources in Trump’s team suggested that the new US president will possibly end the war at the expense of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. This approach has raised concerns among allies about the future of US support for Ukraine and the potential for a peace deal that could favor Russian interests.

“According to our calculations, defeat in Ukraine would require the United States to spend $808 billion more on defense over the next five years than it has budgeted.

Since 2022, by contrast, Congress has appropriated $112 billion to the Defense Department to assist Ukraine. Put another way, allowing Russia to defeat Ukraine would cost the United States about seven times more than preventing a Russian victory,” says the report.

Without US support, Russia is likely to gain ground in 2025 as Ukraine’s weapons supplies dwindle. By 2026, Ukraine could lose its effective air defense, enabling Russia to carry out sustained large-scale bombings of military and civilian infrastructure.

“The country’s military would likely collapse by the end of that year, allowing Russia to seize Kyiv and then drive to NATO border,” suggests the report.

Following this, Moscow will likely reestablish combat units in Belarus and Western Ukraine, positioning them along the borders of NATO members Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania.

The journalist notes that Ukraine’s resources would enable Moscow to threaten the rest of Eastern Europe. Control over Kyiv would grant Russia greater defense-industrial and economic potential.

“With the Ukrainian army under its domain, the Kremlin would have hundreds of thousands of additionally highly trained, skilled, and battle-tested soldiers whom it could press into service,” explains the report.

Thus, by 2030, Russia would once again be ready to attack a NATO member state.

The US armed forces would need approximately 270,000 additional troops to deter Russia in Europe and defeat it after Kyiv’s fall, costing nearly $88 billion.

Moreover, if Russia were to invade a NATO country, it would do everything possible to hinder the US from deploying additional resources. It would also necessitate large-scale fortification efforts in Europe, costing approximately $31 billion.

The US would need 683 more aircraft than planned by 2029, costing approximately $109 billion.

The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the critical importance of unmanned aerial vehicles and drones for the future of warfare. To handle a drone-savvy Moscow, Washington would need to invest significantly in drone technologies, platform development, and production at a cost of $29 billion.

The US will also require enhanced air defense, which would cost approximately $173 billion. The US government will also need to spend an extra $63 billion to boost its industrial capacity.

Washington will also need enhanced naval capabilities. The construction of new submarines and ships will require an additional expenditure of approximately $50 billion.

The US will need to spend approximately $185 billion on additional training and exercises for its troops. They will also need to improve their spare parts reserves, which will cost nearly $33 billion. Furthermore, the US will require more advanced architecture and command systems for space and cyber power, which will cost over $36 billion.

“Add up all these figures, and one arrives at $808 billion. It is an enormous sum – roughly equal to the entire Pentagon budget in 202. And it may be an underestimate,” adds the report.

Instead, if Kyiv prevails over Moscow, Washington could reduce its deployments and capabilities in Europe. While it will still maintain a presence there, it could allocate more resources and attention to the Pacific — a desire for many US presidents, including Donald Trump.

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