welcome to another silicon Wafers and this one discusses the topic of whether Israel fears Putin or not before we get into it it has to be said this article is drawn from a number of different sources a number of reporting sources and articles in the foreign policy press it is not an episode about Gaza or the policies or actions on the territory of Gaza this is about foreign policy and Israel’s interactions with it neighboring countries and adversaries so this news is a week old but more details are still coming out so I think it’s worth taking a deeper dive into the Israeli strike near the Russian Air Base in Syria the full impact of this has also not been appreciated I feel in certain sections of the media so let’s jump into this story and ask the question is Israel at war with Russia well frustratingly this is a no yes answer to the question is it formally at war no does the attack on Russia Munitions being delivered to Iran constitute a declaration of war no will Russia see it as such again the answer is no but this is not a war like World War II or the Cold War it’s a war without rules where acts of aggression Terror and provocation are carried out without restraint and without mutually agreed rules Russia is arming and conspiring with Israel’s enemies of that there is no doubt at all Russia is providing deadly Aid in the full knowledge it’ll be used by the proxies of its Ally Iran to seek to slaughter Israeli civilians Russia indeed has close ties with these proxy forces who are sewing death Terror and Chaos in the region not just in Israel and Russia is fully cognizant of their strategies and the techniques they use to carry out this Terror Russia has probably assisted them in training as well as the provision of the materials of death with Munitions and so on so yes this really is a kind of war and Russia is a full and willing participant in it the gray Zone war of sabotage illegality cyber and informational attacks and the warm war of assassination and provocation World War I may not ever resemble the hot Wars of the past but may play out in this warm gray zone of Perpetual aggression subversion of international institutions and tax in the informational space around 30 missiles triggered huge explosions near the Kim air base near the coastal town of Latakia which is believed to house weapons intended for Iran as his customary responsibility for the raid was not explicitly acknowledged but of course Israel is suspected of launching the attack and importantly Russia and Iran can to have little doubt that it was Israel and Iran’s proxies of Hamas and Hezbollah will also understand this too bright streaks of orange light were seen in the night sky as air def defenses attempted to intercept the incoming missiles but apparently without success a huge Blaze could be seen for Miles close toim there appeared to be secondary explosions suggesting a substantial quantity of weapons or Munitions had been hit and ignited Israel emboldened by its success in destroying Hezbollah Targets in Lebanon appears to be stepping up its campaign against Iranian linked assets in Syria conventional expert opinion would suggest that the raid carries a significant risk of provoking Russia a phrase that is often favored amongst sloppy and appeasing media Outlets too but Israel either judges the risk to be negligible or reasonable or else thinking that these strategic defensive benefits outway any risks I.E destroying Munitions that threaten its Security on the one hand and giving clear deterrent signal to the aggressors arraigned against it on the other that these vastly outweigh the risks of supposedly revoking Russia into further retaliatory steps the Syrian Observatory for human rights said that Russian and Syrian air defenses attempt to intercept the incoming missiles for at least 40 minutes in Latakia there could be many reasons why they failed from incompetence to the superiority of Israeli Munitions but it’s likely that this base was not defended with the best equipment or at sufficient scale possibly because Russian supplies of such equipment are stretched by its war in Ukraine or possibly because they felt a sense of impunity to continue These Arms transports thinking that Israel would show the same timidity caution and strategic calculation though whereas many Western analysts seem allergic to any defensive action that pushes back hard against an aggressor labeling everything as an escalation or a provocation and both these terms are assumed to have by default negative connotations by both analysts and the media but in some cases a strong preemptive response can be the best defensive or deterring strategy controlled provocation can make the aggressor think twice before taking their next escalatory step and the case of Russia seeding escalation dominance to the aggressor is a disastrous strategy it only provokes more aggression more escalation and an inflation of their unreasonable demands retaining the element of surprise doing unexpected things punching back hard against the attacks and ruthlessly countering each planned escalation by Russia is a winning formula and Ukraine has showed this on many occasions including the strikes against the naval headquarters in the Black Sea and more recently in ksk and against Russian ammunition depos after all Russia is a bear not a rabid dog when confronted by strength Superior to its own Russia will back down Russia does not have a history of attacking opponents it perceives to be stronger than itself or ones that show the willingness and capacity to counter its aggression but if you let the bully steal your lunch money yesterday and again today you can be assured that they’ll come for your lunch money tomorrow but not only that they’ll take your phone and anything else they can get off you the next day it’s extraordinary that the reflexive responses wired so deeply into our Western mental Frameworks and the set narratives that percolate the media are automatically structured towards weakness and submission and at worst a kind of preemptive appeasement of autocrats and their implicit threats of violence reports in Syrian media suggest the strike tar tared a warehouse inside the base following the arrival of an Iranian cargo plane suspected of delivering weapons the strike came an hour after an Iranian casm far Airlines plane landed that airline has long been linked to Iran’s revolutionary guard corpse and has previously been accused of transferring weapons to terrorist roxies Russian war blogger rebar on telegram suggested that the target was not the air base but the warehouse near to jbba used by both Iran and Russia Michael horovitz a geopolitical expert and former IDF Soldier said that in the past Iranian PLS have used kimim to deliver weapon shipments to Hezbollah Ukraine’s Center for strategic Communications also posted footage of the attack saying it proved that Russia’s red lines exist only in fairy tales it claimed without providing evidence that the airbase had been decimated some of the missiles were shot down but the Russians he said and some reached their target there are even more questions from the syrians about why the Russian air defense are not helping to repel IDF attacks this is a question that many Russians are also asking when the ukrainians are seen to strike Russian arms depos on the territory of Russia Israel is bound to launch air strikes against any Syrian airport that lets Iranian planes in Teran probably thought its best shot was to use MIM because of the Russian presence there again this points to a strategic error on the part of Iran and Russia the assumption that Israel was locked into this preemptive fear of Russia fear of Russia’s military might and fears of all the terrible reprisals that Russia could take well Israel recognizes that much of this is Bluster and Bluff and Israel has just called Putin’s Bluff Kim is one of the most heavily fortified military bases in Syria its sprawling Airfield is home to Russian fighter jets and bombers as well as sophisticated long range and short range air defenses it was built in 2015 when Moscow began intervening in the Syrian Civil War in support of Bashar al-assad’s regime and carried out large-scale bombing campaigns Moscow has a strong military presence in the provincial town of Latakia particularly around Mayim airbase and a Naval facility in the city of Tartus the attack raises the possibility that Russia an Iranian Ally that has sought to distance itself from Iran’s conflict with Israel could become ens snared in the widening conflict in the Middle East to an extent it is a fiction that Russia is not already deeply involved in the violence sweeping the Middle East or that this violence isn’t in Russia’s favor it absolutely is Russia intervened in Syria’s Civil War in 2015 alongside Iran in support of President Bashar alassad and helped him maintain power with brutal bombardments against Rebel held cities though Russia decreased its footprint in Syria after its full scan invasion of Ukraine in 2022 it maintains a sizable presence in the country Charles liser the director of Middle East institutes Syria and counterterrorism programs said by itself this is just another Israeli strike on another weapons shipment in Syria but the proximity to Kim is rare by striking so close to Russia’s Flagship base Israel may also be sending a signal that in such Zero Sum circumstances anything is deemed a legitimate Target and an acceptable risk and this I think is the key idea that Israel will defend its legitimate security concerns whether they impinge upon Russian operations or counter Russian aggression Logistics or Russian strategic interests this is correct thinking in relation to Russia who are not on the kind of provocation hair trigger we seem to imagine they are the risk of losing such shipments is priced into any strategy on the part of Russians it is an understood risk they may assume that adversaries will not strike back but they will not take it as a certainty if the risk of losing an armed shipment is already priced into the operation why would you escalate the Israeli response into a nuclear matter it’s totally outside of the calculated aggression that Russia deploys and it would be irrational however trying to make us think they are irrational is a perfectly rational strategy on the part of Russia but we need to cut through that we need to see through that and understand when a threat needs to be countered in a relatively low-risk fashion and when striking back would actually engender real risks of retaliation so this is not World War II in the full sense that we understand historical Global conflicts playing out but the strike could certainly have significant consequences for Russia Israeli relations it sets the tone for an adversarial relationship that will play out on many fronts military strategic influence cyber and information as well as through provocations and violence via proxies the Israeli strike is not not the initiator of such an adversarial relationship but action is taken in the recognition that a state of hybrid War already exists between Israel and Russia the same hybrid war is also playing Out Among Western allies and Russia but our leaders our media and some analysts choose not to acknowledge it as ever the Israelis are blunt direct and not afraid to employ violence to find solutions to issues that threaten their perceived National Security interests this is in St contrast to Western allies that continue to mute conversations about the hybrid War Russia is waging against them and their Global interests this is also reflected in the failure of European allies to acknowledge also what ukrainians are doing to hold at Bay the tidal wave of aggression that Russia would like to unleash on European countries the so-called escalation between Iran and Israel will likely have implications for Russia’s presence in Syria too the broader the war’s consequences the harder it is for Russia to secure its interests and role in Syria and the more stretched its military resources will become Russia’s involvement as an ally of the Syrian regime did not come without cost it was not free Moscow exploited Bashar al-assad’s need for Russian forces and their support in order to achieve its own interests in reaching the warm Waters of the Mediterranean Sea but Moscow is not the only foreign power operating in the country Iran and its militias have penetrated the Syrian government and its institutions over many years but Tran now faces tough conditions and possibly the hardest since the Iran Iraq war of 1980 to 1988 the repercussions of Israel’s operation in the Gaza Strip the assassination of hamas’s political bureau chief Ismael hania in tran followed by targeting top hasbalah leaders in Beirut and Syria posed challenges for Tran especially with its Ally in Syria on August the 5th the New York Times reported that Iran requested Advanced Air Defense defense systems from Russia in preparation for a potential war against Israel Iranian officials told journalists that Russia had already begun delivering Advanced radar devices and air defense equipment to Iran did they help apparently not enough judging by the outcome of Israel’s air strike Moscow has intervened in the current conflict as reported in foreign policy in August stating that Russia is deepening it ties with Iran recent indications including a meeting between the Russian Security Council secretary and former Defense Minister Serge shyu with Iranian president mud pishan and the Ukrainian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Muhammad bageri Moscow likely sees the current Middle East turmoil as advantageous in diverting attention from its battles in Ukraine and in challenging ing the collective West and eroding the West’s will to defend its interests on multiple fronts and on a global scale we conclude this episode by looking at a fascinating article by Kia kirilova and published by sea links to the full article are held in the description of this video she says that Israel’s decapitation strikes against Hezbollah leave Russia anxious Putin May fear his regime is vulnerable to the sort of attacks employed by Israel against Hezbollah their proposed responses are predictably UNS subtle says cenia the audacity and scale of Israel’s attacks on hesah are unprecedented they’ve done serious damage to the organization and achieved a staggeringly successful penetration whether through human agents or signals intelligence of a highly secretive group Russia has taken notice and is anxious the September attacks on members of the iran-backed militia group in Lebanon killed at least 62 people and left at least 1500 Fighters maimed and blinded a Hezbollah official told Reuters soon afterward Israel launched a long series of decapitation strikes aimed at destroying hezbollah’s senior command structure with considerable success Russia’s military is now discussing whether it too is vulnerable to similar strikes and how to protect itself from them Russian propagandist Drew parallels between Hezbollah branded a terrorist group by the US and the UK and Russia warning that Moscow must draw lessons from Israel’s actions Russia now has a digital choir of extreme nationalist voices who respond to almost any development with threats of aggression and the initiation of Acts of War they are toxic aggressive and noisy and have access to digital mass media with considerable reach while their talk sometimes seems deranged full of paranoia and hate it is clearly sanctioned by the regime not just tolerated the self-described philosopher and Ultra nationalist Alexander Dugan said the attack and death of hasah leader s Hassan nazala was a colossal blow against the entire structure of Middle Eastern resistance and the beginning of the end of the world well such a statement is overblown perhaps but Dugan supported this argument that Russia should use its most dangerous weapons to avoid a similar fate for its assets and agents such outspoken radicals were joined by military analysts echoing his words rattling the nuclear saber is not uncommon In This Crowd though several articles appeared in strategic military Publications suggesting a range of preventative strikes to avoid the grizzly fate of nazala and his lieutenants Yin fedorov a regular contributor to the site declared that Israel’s acts of Terror in Lebanon raised questions about the safety of of Russians quotes and warned that imported technology may be lifethreatening Russia has a long association with Middle Eastern terrorist groups even if it avoids clear formal alliances with them just as it was with the Soviet Union which trained and armed militants across the midle East Putin’s regime has expressed solidarity with the world’s outcasts in including a deepening alliance with Iran and growing anti-Semitism has contributed to the perception of Israel as an enemy amongst many in this choir of toxic propagandistic voices even if this anti-Semitism is not officially proclaimed by Russia’s officials it slips into their public statements and forms a clear subtext to many of their announcements remember all also that the torrent of hate and threats from digital propagandists is largely state approved the conspiracy theory that Jews unleashed the Russia Ukrainian War to cleans the land of slaves and settle it for themselves is also a popular Trope in radical patriotic forums the spread of such sentiments no matter how nonsensical they seem may have influenced the anti-Semitic pgms in dagistan in the Autumn of 2023 another contributor Mikel nikoleski claimed the West is deliberately pushing Russia and Iran into the most severe scenario forcing Russia to use nuclear weapons and Iran to enter fullscale hostilities with Israel he argued that the two countries should jointly develop an unexpected and non-trivial solution in response these are his words not mine it is now feared that this could translate into Russian support for Iran’s nuclear program and even the supply of technology to give them an out-of-the-box nuclear capability just as Putin did with beris in 2023 again Western timidity and soft appeasement of Russia has not mitigated the risks it do not manage the risks but rather made them deeper and more intractable as well as potentially far far more dangerous his colleague Andre mitrov came up with options for such nontrivial Solutions including a massive missile strike on government buildings in Kev or attacks on some NATO countries under foreign Flags Etc he proposed using drones without identification marks or with Ukrainian identification marks to strike the American Globus 3 and Globus 2 radio sites in Norway one option he said could be to strike from Finland oil and gas production facilities in Norway and Finland are often cited as possible targets by this choir of hateful Russian military commentators Romania to could be hit he wrote as it is a country hostile to Russia targets there would be Radars and launchers stationed as part of America’s Aegis offshore missile defense system he also suggested strikes on Baltic states which quotes create problems writing that the proximity and limited territory of lvia Lithuania and Estonia allows for the large scale use of small kamakazi uavs including fpv drones including those with incend munitions the targets he wrote are Ammunition Depot Fuel and other similar objects in a further provocation he suggested British ships could be sunk under pretense that Russia has nothing to do with that at all the question is how seriously such plans should be taken writes CA on the one hand Putin’s war in Ukraine has demonstrated that Russia is unable to defeat even a smaller neighbor and defend its own territory and and certainly lacks the resources for a full scale conventional war with NATO on the other hand however acts of sabotage under false Flags or no flags at all should be taken extremely seriously Western intelligence Services have detected an increase in the number of Russian sabotage attacks in Europe aimed at disrupting arms supplies to Kev including Arsen and explosions at military factories yet new news of these is muted in the Press because to acknowledge the full scale of the threat would require a serious and expensive political and Military response Israel is used to making high investments in defense as a proportion of its GDP and using those assets in a non- timid fashion pursuing its strategic interests without regards for the international outcry that they in gender but perhaps they are also well placed to distinguish between Bluster and Hollow threats from actual risks the strike against Russian interests its allies and proxies seem to have got those calls right there is no direct Hot War as a consequence Russia will not respond directly and yet through its actions one aspect of the threats facing Israel has been reduced namely Iran’s proxies being able to use russian-made Munitions the West now needs to learn these lessons in Ukraine when to push back and cut through the hollow threats of Russian propagandists and terrorist politicians and when to take the threats of escalation seriously we have not been good at judging when to push forward and when to hold back and those poor judgments and timidity have to date cost many thousands of Ukrainian lives all your engagement with the videos on this channel is massively appreciated as well as encouraging comments and the financial support you provide some of you will have donated to Ukrainian Charities including the ones listed in the descriptions of these videos I know many of you ask how you could be doing more to help Ukraine and that includes me well here is news of a project that I think could make a huge difference it’s been initiated by silicon curtain and I hope will support ukrainians on the ground and in the diaspora and create real impact to help ensure a Ukrainian Victory it’s a documentary film to be made in Ukraine later this year and shown internationally hopefully at film festivals and on Silicon curtain as well we aim in the film to follow the 75th Aid Convoy to Ukraine by a remarkable team based in Poland delivering vital medical humanitarian and military aid that helps ukrainians remain resilient no doubt the efforts of this team has saved innumerable lives of Ukrainian service men and women fighting on the front line of Freedom we have a unique opportunity to share authentic stories on the world stage through this film bya Film Festival social media and streaming to Silicon curtain the film will provide a counterweight to Russian propaganda films such as Russians at War it will show spontaneous stories gathered on the journey as we travel the length of the front line filming footage and interviews along the journey we will have a unique opportunity to convey the shared humanity and common cause of ukrainians living with war the film will focus on stories of Hope and resilience with the war as backdrop and aims to create a compelling narrative and tone that is entirely authentic well here’s the important bit we’re aiming to raise £12,000 to record the dog sled tournament and create a stunning trailer for the project overall the project will cost up to $100,000 for endtoend production and distribution for the price of a DVD rental or a streamed movie you could help create a film that raises awareness of Ukraine’s struggle and generates funds for further Aid convoys supporters of the film will get early access to see it and free access to the film for all time this is a bold and ambitious project but it will be led by an experienced documentary team with a professional cinematographer it is time I think to join together to achieve something powerful and unique for Ukraine after reviewing many project ideas we feel that this is the best way that we can have an impact tentatively titled to the edge of Freedom here is a short description of the film a world champion dog sled racer navigates dangerous obstacles through the apocalypse like battle zones of Ukraine’s front line delivering life-saving Aid to ordinary Heroes engaged in extraordinary acts of Valor Igor TR the team leader is a remarkable personality and Relentless supporter of Ukraine throughout the fullscale war the film starts in Finland at the world championship dogsled tournament with eigor fresh from his 11th World Championship in dogsled racing eigor TR leads his foundation’s 75th humanitarian mission to the front lines of War torn Ukraine for this Mission Igor’s team is joined by a few friends from the US and UK who will not only provide Hands-On support but share what they learn on the ground with new sources in the west our cameras follow eigor from Finland to Gdansk to leiv to MV Kon too Pak kiv and other Frontline cities facing the brunt of Russian aggression along the way they will meet colorful and determined individuals fighting for their families right to survive eigor and his team navigate life and death situations to bring much needed supplies visiting bunkers hospitals and units whose success may not merely determine the fate of this ancient culture but of the West itself the film will follow Igor’s latest Aid Convoy to the front line and back again I hope this description will inspire you to become part of the film project and make a difference to the war’s outcome a war that Ukraine must win clearly and decisively please do find the donation Link in the description of the video and do reach out to me if you have any questions at all about the project and it’s intended impact