The decent tanks need some minor maintenance before deployment, while the poor tanks require extensive overhauls and repairs. The worst tanks are often beyond repair, but could be used as hulls for new tanks. The distinction is crucial, as Russia is now scraping the bottom of the barrel for usable tanks.

Satellite imagery has revealed the extent of the decline, showing massive depots like the 12th, 22nd, and 349th with significant reductions in tank numbers. The 769th, the largest depot, still has 869 tanks, but many are in poor condition.

We’ve calculated that less than 20% of the remaining tanks are in decent condition, 50% are in poor condition, and 30% are in the worst condition. This implies that Russia may run out of tanks in about six years, four years if we exclude the worst, and just over a year and a half if we remove half of the poor tanks. However, this is contingent on the ability to repair and maintain the tanks.

Russia is building new tanks, but at a rate that cannot keep pace with losses. The likelihood is that Russia will run out of usable tanks, leading to a growing shortage as those remaining in storage take longer to repair. By type, the fewest remaining tanks are the T-9s, T-8s, and T-72s, with the exception of the T-72A, which numbers are still high, but many are in horrible shape.

Ultimately, Russia’s tank reserves are in a precarious state, with a severe shortage of usable tanks on the horizon.