Can Ukraine Stop Russian Artillery? Is it Possible for Russia to Run Out?

Can Ukraine Stop Russian Artillery? Is it Possible for Russia to Run Out?

Video Summary

In recent weeks, Ukraine has repeatedly struck and destroyed dozens of Russian artillery systems at a rate much higher than before. This surge can be seen in the number of status quo since April. The increase is linked to Ukraine’s ongoing counter-offensive to degrade Russia’s ability to stop them by destroying their artillery.

I wondered if Ukraine could eliminate the threat from Russia’s artillery. Russia could actually run out of artillery pieces first. To help me visualize the numbers, I used our sponsor Factor 75, a meal kit company that brings ready-to-eat meals to your doorstep.

Artillery has been a vital part of war since its invention. It can be used to degrade an enemy’s defensive lines, repel an enemy attack, or simply harass each other to keep heads down and restrict movement.

Counting Russia’s artillery is difficult as many are inoperable and past the point of saving. I break down the numbers into two categories: towed artillery, which can’t move on their own, and self-propelled artillery, which has a large artillery gun on top of a vehicle.

The 75th Arsenal, the 80th Arsenal, and the 94th Arsenal were the most difficult to count. I relied on satellite imagery to estimate the number of artillery systems. The 80th Arsenal had around 1,610 towed and 764 self-propelled artillery systems in 2023, while the 94th Arsenal had around 159 towed and 1,272 self-propelled.

The 120th Arsenal had around 820 towed and 470 self-propelled artillery systems in 2021, but only 470 towed and 506 self-propelled in 2023. Many self-propelled systems in 2023 looked like they were being scrapped for spare parts.

The 243rd Arsenal dropped from 975 towed and 527 self-propelled to 485 and 515, respectively, as of May 2023. Finally, the 70th Arsenal saw a big decline from 760 towed and 804 self-propelled artillery pre-war to 279 towed and 611 self-propelled in imagery from May 2023.

Tallying it all up, Russia has around 7,500 towed and 4,408 self-propelled artillery systems remaining. Unfortunately, some of these images are old, so they likely have even fewer. It’s also important to note that this count only includes artillery in storage and not those in active service, which likely number in the thousands.

The other thing you might notice is that Oryx has listed Russia has only lost about 700 pieces of artillery, while my count shows over 5,000 less in storage. There are a few reasons for this discrepancy. Artillery is often undercounted as it’s harder to visualize and Russia likely pulled more artillery pieces out of storage not just to replace losses but to bolster numbers in areas where they’re needed. Additionally, Russia is constantly scrapping those in storage for spare and replacement parts, which means they likely have to replace a dozen or more barrels every day.


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