To start, China would need to get its troops, tanks, and supplies to the island. This would require an amphibious assault to establish a beachhead, which is a notoriously difficult and complex operation. The Chinese navy would need to overcome the Taiwanese air force, early warning radar, and long-range air defense systems like Patriot and Sky Bow. If China could pull this off, it would then need to destroy Taiwan’s command and control centers, communication networks, and disrupt any opposition.

But Taiwan has been preparing for this scenario, building underground bunkers and command centers to resist an invasion. They’d also need to disable Taiwan’s air bases, and probably use cyber warfare to confuse and disorient the enemy. Taiwan operates long-range land attack cruise missiles, which could attack targets in China, but they’re too few to significantly impact the war effort.

To counter China’s might, Taiwan would need to rely on asymmetric warfare – small, low-cost, and high-speed attacks that are difficult to counter. This could include unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or as I like to call them, “drones,” and shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, such as manpads. These could be used to disrupt China’s operations, targeting their supply lines and disrupting their command and control centers.

Taiwan’s geography gives them an advantage, as the hills and mountains surrounding Taipei could be used as staging points for these small-scale operations. They could also use small attack boats and even commandeered fishing boats, loaded with short-range rockets and missiles, to attack an invading force. This strategy might be familiar to those studying Iran, which faces a similar challenge in defending against a powerful naval force.

While Taiwan wouldn’t be able to stop China’s military might, it could make things difficult and costly for China. The United States and other allies might also step in to defend Taiwan, making it difficult for China to win a war. Until China is confident in their ability to succeed, they won’t attempt an invasion. For now, the status quo remains, with China conducting military exercises near Taiwan and international onlookers watching with concern.