Why Ukraine can’t provide a clear strategy to Mike Johnson

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January 13, 2024

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The US Congress has yet to approve a new aid package for Ukraine for 2024, which is a critical concern for Ukraine as it is not clear how many weapons it will receive from the US. The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, has repeatedly stated that he cannot plan a vote on this package until he receives a strategy from Ukraine and the White House. The concept of a strategy is often misunderstood, and it appears that Mike Johnson may not fully grasp it either. Therefore, let us clarify what a military strategy entails. In essence, a military strategy has three elements: goals, means, and resources. The goal is what you want to achieve, the means are the methods you will use to achieve it, and resources are the cost of achieving it.

A strategy is not just a document; it is a constant process of reassessment, adaptation, and reevaluation. It involves the constant interaction between goals, means, and resources. This is not a linear process, but rather a circular one, where each element affects the others. In the case of Ukraine, the goal is to liberate all occupied territories, defeat Russia militarily, and force it to withdraw from Ukraine. The means include achieving air superiority through drone warfare, winning exhaustion warfare by launching deep strikes into Russian territory, and focusing on a defensive battle along the front line while ensuring the Russian army incurs high casualties.

However, the problem lies in the resources. Ukraine does not know how many resources it will have, as the West has not been able to deliver on its promises. This is a circular argument, where Mike Johnson demands a strategy from Ukraine before deciding how many resources to provide, but Ukraine cannot create a strategy without knowing what resources it will have. It seems that Mike Johnson’s argument is flawed, and he may not fully understand how a military strategy works.

In conclusion, the situation is stalemated, with Ukraine caught in a limbo of uncertainty. The only way forward is for Ukraine to secure a reliable stream of weapons and adapt its strategies accordingly. This means focusing on a defensive battle and exhaustion warfare, rather than a large-scale offensive, as the latter would require a high level of resource commitment. The situation is a clear example of how the elements of strategy – goals, means, and resources – interact with each other, and how Ukraine is forced to adjust its strategy in the face of uncertainty.