What is military deterrence?

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February 6, 2022

Video Summary

Afskrækkelse, a concept often used in military discussions, is more than just scaring an opponent into not attacking. It’s about persuading them not to take a specific action or start a war that you don’t want. This is what military forces do when there is no war underway, showing that they could contest a war and making it less likely that an opponent will attack.

There are different dimensions to this concept. For instance, how do you keep someone from doing something they want to do? What levers can you pull? One important thing to note is that this is different from coercion, where you force someone to do something they don’t want to. Afskrækkelse, on the other hand, is the opposite, where you keep someone from doing something they want to, by demonstrating the high costs and low benefits of doing so.

There are two main ways to create an effect of afskrækkelse: either increase the costs or decrease the benefits. One way to do this is by “afskrækkelse ved straf”, increasing the costs for the opponent. This can be done by showing that you have the capability to inflict severe pain and suffering. On the other hand, there’s “afskrækkelse ved benægtelse”, where you reduce the benefits of an action by making it less likely to succeed or by reducing the value of success.

For example, if a country is dependent on gas imports from its opponent, reducing its gas consumption can decrease the value of taking invasion as a means of pressure. Another example is the concept of digital payment transactions, where doing away with cash as a payment method can increase the gain from attacking a society by creating a vulnerability that can be exploited.

Afskrækkelse is more than just a simple concept, as it requires a deep understanding of one’s enemy and the development of scenarios to see how to reduce the value of an opponent’s action. Smaller countries that can’t afford to have a strong military force can still use afskrækkelse, but it needs to be done in a smarter and more nuanced way.