War of attrition: Not a frozen conflict — 17MAY2022

Video Summary

The US Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, has stated that Russia is preparing for a long-term conflict in Ukraine. While her statement is technically correct, many people misunderstood her to mean that the war has become a stalemate, but this is not the case. The conflict in Ukraine is an exhaustion war, not a frozen conflict. In an exhaustion war, one side is gradually weakening and losing combat strength, which is the opposite of a frozen conflict where the intensity of the war slows down and becomes static.

Haines’ statement did not mention the Ukrainian side’s perspective, which is important in a real war. Haines was explaining how the US intelligence community understands Russia’s intentions and capabilities. She noted that there is a discrepancy between Russia’s intentions and capabilities, and that this reality will become clear to the Russian leadership in the coming months. She also stated that the conflict is likely to escalate, as the US is unaware of how Putin will react.

The article argues that the media misinterpreted Haines’ statement, reducing it to a simple quote about Russia preparing for a long war. However, the correct understanding is that the war is an exhaustion war, where both sides are losing strength, and it’s unclear how it will end. The article concludes that the situation in Ukraine is far from being a frozen conflict, but rather a dynamic and intense war.

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