Time for a new Ukrainian offensive?

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July 16, 2024

Video Summary

In recent months, there has been a debate about the timing of a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russia. Ukraine is currently on the defensive, and has been since last October. The question is, when can we expect them to turn the tide and go on the offensive again? In a typical war, there are periods of intense fighting, followed by periods of rebuilding and regrouping. Both sides will have their turn to take the initiative, switch to the defensive, and focus on rebuilding their forces. This has been the case in the war between Russia and Ukraine. If we draw the big lines, we can say that for the first six months of the full-scale invasion, Russia was on the offensive. Then Ukraine took the initiative and had a successful counter-offensive that lasted for about a year, including the successful Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, and the notorious summer offensive last year. This was followed by a period where Russia was again on the offensive, which has continued since last fall and is still ongoing.

It’s not clear how successful this Russian offensive has been, as it has consumed a lot of resources, but one can argue that it’s not very impressive. So, we can expect the initiative to return to Ukraine at some point, and we can expect a new offensive. The question is when? Ukraine is currently preparing its forces, receiving aid from its partners, and building up its strength.

There are different opinions on what Ukraine should do. Some argue that Ukraine should not waste this opportunity and give Russia more time to prepare a solid defense, as Russia is good at building defenses, and it’s hard for Ukraine to attack successfully. Others argue that Ukraine should take the initiative and launch a counter-offensive as soon as possible to create a sense of optimism and break the narrative that this is a hopeless war. There are also concerns that if Ukraine waits too long, it may miss the opportunity, and if it launches a counter-offensive too early, it may be unsuccessful.

The most important factor to consider is the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the upcoming US election. If Biden is re-elected, the US support to Ukraine will likely continue, but if Trump is elected, it’s unclear what will happen. This could be a major blow to Ukraine’s chances of success, and it’s better for them to wait until the result is clear before launching a major counter-offensive.