The Russian logic behind a war in Ukraine, 25JAN2022
Video Summary
In recent weeks, Russia has been building up its military presence near Ukraine, raising concerns of an impending attack. Last week, a video predicted three potential indicators of a Russian attack: aggressive posturing in the Baltic Sea, increased confrontation in the Russian media, and a pretext for intervention. This update evaluates the current situation and examines why a large-scale war in Europe may be imminent. Aggressive posturing has not yet been seen, but Russia has announced massive naval exercises in January and February. Confrontation in the media has increased since a meeting between US Secretary of State Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. A pretext for intervention, meanwhile, is believed to be the claim that NATO has enormous troop formations in Ukraine threatening Russia, and that Ukraine’s government is planning an attack on the Donbas region. With multiple scenarios possible, including a full occupation of Ukraine, a big war remains a concern. Russia’s ambitions for a new European security order may drive them to take drastic action. A war could be brutal, with devastation and refugee flows serving as a reminder of the consequences of war.
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