The Cold War is back: A new normal in European security – Ukraine update 18FEB2022

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February 18, 2022

Video Summary

The crisis in Ukraine has been puzzling for many analysts, and a closer examination reveals that there are two separate crises at play. The first is Russia’s redefinition of the European security order, with some seeing a return to the Cold War era. Russia is pushing for a new European security order that resembles the Cold War era, with a focus on bilateral agreements and a desire for closer ties with countries like Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Serbia. They are seeking to redefine the norms of the post-Cold War era, where international law and diplomacy took center stage.

The second crisis is the specific situation in Ukraine, which Russia wants to resolve within the framework of this new security order. The West, including NATO and the European Union, has been focused on the Ukraine crisis, with many believing that the conflict would be resolved if Ukraine is not admitted to NATO. However, this would indeed be a return to the status quo ante. The Russian vision is that Ukraine will be part of the new European security order, and Russia is seeking to shape the post-crisis security order for Europe.

A key misunderstanding is that many analysts are still operating within the framework of the post-Cold War era, predicting a return to the pre-crisis situation. However, this is no longer possible. The crisis in Ukraine is not just about Ukraine; it’s about the future of European security and the shape of the post-cold era. As such, discussions about the Ukraine crisis must take into account the Russian vision of a new European security order. The implications are far-reaching, with the possibility of a new “iron curtain” and a permanent division between Europe and Russia, requiring a stronger military presence in Eastern Europe and increased awareness of the possibility of war.