Russia still hopes for a quick victory

Video Summary

Russia’s Expectations on the Duration of the War in Ukraine

Russia’s strategy and goals in Ukraine are shaped by their expectations of the war’s duration. While most analysts believe Russia is preparing for a long war, this article argues that President Putin is still betting on a quick war. A quick war would last only six months, while a long war would extend beyond the summer.

The article examines two scenarios: a quick war, where Russia throws all its resources into the fight immediately, and a long war, where Russia stabilizes the frontlines and waits for the spring to launch a new offensive. The author believes that Russia’s actions, such as fast-paced use of high-precision missiles and elite military units, suggest that Putin is preparing for a quick war.

However, this approach has significant social and political implications. Putin must redefine the social contract and re-engage the Russian public, which is disenchanted with the war and the government’s handling of it. The article cites a dip in support for the war, from 57% in July to 25% in the latest poll, and notes that protests by the families of mobilized soldiers are intensifying.

The article concludes that most Western military analysts are wrong about Russia’s strategy, believing that Putin is preparing for a long war, as they would in their own circumstances. However, Putin’s actions suggest that he expects a quick resolution, driven by his need to end the war before he needs to mobilize more troops and risk social unrest and protest.

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