Losing on patriotism: Why Putin fears the ultranationalists

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September 12, 2022

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The situation in Ukraine is critical, with Ukraine making significant gains in a few short days, while Russia seems to be losing territory. This is a nightmare scenario for Russia, putting Putin under intense pressure. Not only is it difficult to see how he can turn the situation around, but he is also under internal pressure from within Russia. It appears that he is gradually losing control of the narrative of the so-called special military operation. And that’s what I will discuss in this article.

There are now more voices from within Russia criticizing Putin and the military leadership in a way that is different from the past. This could topple a dictatorship. The situation is serious for Putin.

In the last week, Ukraine has conducted an incredible counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region. We can see this on DeepState Map. This is very simplified, as the real operations were much more complex. But it gives an overall idea.

Ukraine seized Balakliya and then expanded to a deep attack on Kupyansk. And due to the sea here, this meant that the Russian forces in Izyum were at risk of being encircled. So they began to retreat, and we don’t know how many escaped and how many were taken prisoner. And it was not a quiet retreat. It was a collapse among the Russian forces in the region.

The question is whether Ukraine can continue further in the Luhansk oblast, which is here nearby, or perhaps do something similar in Donetsk, below. To stop this disaster, Russia has taken all its forces from the northern part of the Kharkiv oblast and brought them here. The way the Russian Defense Ministry has handled this has not been convincing.

As Russian forces in Izyum began to hear rumors of reinforcements they would get, only to hear the next day that there were no reinforcements coming, and they were on their own. It must be demoralizing for all Russian soldiers on the front line. If they are in trouble, they are on their own. And since they can’t rely on the things they are told by the Defense Ministry, this is a very demoralizing message.

As Izyum fell and the Russian effort collapsed, Putin apparently had other priorities. He did not forget his 875th birthday celebrated in Moscow, and he even opened a new metro line. And the Kremlin’s message is still that the special military operation is proceeding according to plan. But lies become too obvious. And that’s the problem.

The real threat to Putin is not the liberal opposition, which has always opposed the war. He knows how to handle them. The real threat comes from two other sources. The first is ultranationalists. These are people who do not object to the war but want more war. They believe in Putin’s idea of Ukraine’s place in the world. They think Ukrainian nationalism is a disease that must be eradicated with violence. So their criticism is that Putin is not doing enough. That the special military operation is insufficient, and Putin should declare full mobilization. These ultranationalists are represented by Russian military bloggers who have become quite famous during the war. The most well-known is Igor Girkin.

These military bloggers make good military analyses, and they seemingly have a network of sources that provide information on the situation at the front. And we know that their views are shared by many soldiers. For example, there have been studies that show that ultranationalist views are common in spetsnaz forces.