How soon can a NATO-Russia war happen?

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February 15, 2024

Video Summary

The possibility of Russia attacking NATO has been a topic of discussion, with some experts estimating a timeframe of 5-8 years, while others propose a shorter time frame of 2-5 years. The German defense minister has mentioned a 5-8 year window, while the Danish military intelligence suggests a 2-year timeframe. However, these estimates are subject to change and should not be taken as exact predictions. The threat of a Russian attack on NATO is a complex issue, and it is difficult to pinpoint an exact timeline.

It’s crucial to consider the war in Ukraine, as it has already weakened Russia’s military capabilities and resources. Moreover, Russia’s war production is in wartime mode, and it will take time to rebuild its military strength.

There are two possible scenarios: a sequential scenario where the war in Ukraine ends and Russia rebuilds its military before making a move against NATO, and a simultaneous scenario where Russia uses the ongoing war to improve its position in Ukraine and then challenges NATO.

Assuming the sequential scenario, there is a warning time before a Russian threat materializes, which could be 5-8 years. However, if we consider the simultaneous scenario, there is no warning time, and the threat could emerge sooner.

It’s crucial to consider the current situation in the US, as it could impact the situation in Europe. If Donald Trump wins the election and the US disengages from supporting Ukraine, Europe would need to provide the majority of its defense production to Ukraine, creating a dilemma for European NATO countries, who would have to choose between supporting Ukraine or standing up for NATO. This could lead to a situation where Russia uses aggression to force these countries to prioritize their own security.