How is the war going? — Mid-October 2022
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The situation in Ukraine is complex, making it hard to keep track of the key trends. This article provides an overview of the current state of the war, focusing on the fronts, including the border with Belarus, the Sumy region, and the Kherson region. The author notes that Belarus may not enter the conflict, as its military is not strong compared to Ukraine’s. However, Russia may try to pressure Belarus to join the war, which could lead to more instability in the region.
In the Sumy region, Ukraine has made significant gains, pushing the Russian army back and even cutting off some of their supply lines. The author predicts that Ukraine will continue to make progress in this region, possibly by taking the area around Svatove and then pushing towards Kreminna.
On the Kherson front, Ukraine has also made advances, pushing the Russian army back and taking control of some areas. The author notes that this could lead to a dilemma for Russia, as they would need to either retreat or cut off the area and risk losing control of the region. Overall, the author believes that Ukraine has the upper hand in the war, with the momentum and strategic initiative on its side.
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