Is Russia Winning This War?

Video Summary

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has sparked debates about who is winning the war. Russian trolls claim that Russia is winning, but this assessment is flawed. Historical examples, such as the Korean War, Nazi Germany’s invasion of Russia, and Napoleon’s French occupation of Moscow, show that winning every battle and taking territory does not necessarily guarantee victory. In fact, a successful military campaign requires two essential factors: the support of local people and the support of one’s own people back home.

Russia’s military objective has shifted from taking the entire country to gaining control of the Donbass region and the two oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk. However, their military has struggled to achieve this goal, with only 95% of Luhansk and 50% of Donetsk under their control. Ukraine, on the other hand, has focused on defending its territory, particularly the city of Kurzan, which is a strategic location with a high ethnic Ukrainian population.

Vladimir Putin’s strategy is to take as much territory as possible by this summer and then negotiate with Western leaders for a ceasefire. However, this approach is unlikely to succeed, as Russia’s military is not capable of sustaining a war of this intensity. Russia has exposed itself by making concessions, such as offering safe passage for Ukrainian food exports, and has suffered significant losses, including personnel and equipment. The war has also led to a brain drain, with hundreds of thousands of Russians fleeing the country.

In conclusion, Russia is not winning the war. Time is on Ukraine’s side as they receive more support from the West and bring in more trained personnel. The war is a test of endurance, and Russia’s military is not equipped to sustain its current rate of attrition.

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