NYT: Ukraine trades space for Russian losses in Donbas

Ukraine has officially announced the withdrawal of its troops from Vuhledar on 2 October, following reports of the city’s fall on 1 October. This retreat is part of a larger strategy employed by Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region, as reported by The New York Times.

Throughout the year, Ukraine has lost a series of cities, towns, and villages in its eastern region of the Donbas to Russia. Marinka fell in January, followed by Avdiivka, and most recently, Vuhledar. While these losses might appear to signal Russia gaining the upper hand, Ukrainian commanders and military experts argue that a more crucial fight is unfolding.

The Russo-Ukrainian war has evolved into a war of attrition, with each side attempting to exhaust the other by inflicting maximum losses. Ukraine, faced with Russia’s overwhelming advantage in manpower and firepower, has adopted what Mykola Bielieskov, a military analyst at Ukraine’s government-run Institute for Strategic Studies, calls a strategy of “trading space for Russian losses.”

Vuhledar

The New York Times says Roman, a commander who defended Vuhledar with Ukraine’s 72nd Brigade, revealed that by late summer, Russian forces held a 10-to-1 advantage in artillery systems around Vuhledar. “How can one of our artillery systems fight 10 of theirs?” he asked.

Ukrainian brigade says it minimized losses through strategic retreat from Vuhledar

Despite holding Vuhledar for more than two years and inflicting significant losses on Russian forces, Ukraine eventually announced its retreat on 2 October, “to save personnel and military equipment.”

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine emphasized the importance of this strategy in his nightly October 2 address, stating,

“This is the most important thing — to exhaust the enemy.”

Losses

According to NYT, Ukrainian and Western officials point to rising Russian casualty figures as evidence of the war’s heavy toll on Russia. Nicholas Aucott, an adviser to the British military, reported nearly 1,200 Russian casualties a day in August this year.

Throughout the war, Russia has lost roughly three armored fighting vehicles for every Ukrainian one, according to Oryx, a military analysis site. Analysts from the Royal United Services Institute estimate that at the current rate of losses and replacement production, Russia is likely to exhaust its stocks of armored fighting vehicles by 2026.

Ukraine’s manpower and firepower disadvantages were reportedly starting to narrow thanks to mobilization efforts and increased ammunition supplies from Western allies. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s top commander, said last month that the ratio of artillery shell usage between Russia and Ukraine had narrowed in recent months.

However, it remains unclear how much territory Kyiv will have to concede before the Russian Army runs out of steam — if it ever does. The situation is further complicated by Ukraine’s offensive into Russia’s western Kursk region in August, which has stretched its resources, NYT notes.

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