ISW: Russia shifts forces from captured Kurakhove for new Pokrovsk offensive

Russian forces are redeploying combat units from recently captured Kurakhove to bolster their offensive around Pokrovsk, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports. This might be a part of ongoing efforts to intensify offensive operations south and southwest of the town.

The redeployment might signal a major shift in Russian operational focus as forces concentrate on a potential encirclement of this strategically important town in Donetsk Oblast.

“The Russian military command may be deprioritizing offensive operations in the Kurakhove direction and redeploying forces from Kurakhove to reinforce the Pokrovsk direction now that Russian forces have accomplished their objective of seizing Kurakhove,” ISW reports.

The Russian Central Grouping of Forces has assembled a strike group south of Pokrovsk, comprising units from both the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies (CAAs). Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets identified that this consolidation includes elements of four brigades and three regiments positioned between Dachenske and Novotroitske.

Specifically, elements of the 51st CAA’s units, including parts of the 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade, which participated in the seizure of Kurakhove in late December 2024, have been redeployed to support offensive operations east of Pokrovsk.

ISW notes that it remains unclear whether the Russian command reinforced or sufficiently reconstituted degraded Russian units that recently participated in battles to seize Kurakhove and its environs so that they may effectively operate on the current frontline in Pokrovsk.

“The Russian military command’s decision to establish a strike group comprised of units of both the 2nd and 41st CAAs south of Pokrovsk indicates that Russian forces may be reprioritizing tactical objectives in the Pokrovsk direction to set conditions to exploit more opportunistic avenues of advance closer to Pokrovsk’s immediate flanks,” ISW states.

The Institute assesses that while Russian forces will likely continue their attempts to envelop Pokrovsk from the northeast and southwest, the rate of such advances will likely remain slow. Russian forces have yet to demonstrate the ability to conduct the type of rapid mechanized maneuver necessary to penetrate Ukrainian defensive lines and surround Pokrovsk quickly enough to encircle a significant number of Ukrainian forces.

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