Russo-Ukrainian war, day 1052: US announced extensive Russian oil sanctions, while UK to discuss potential deployment of peacekeepers to Ukraine

Military

Frontline report: North Korean “human waves” fail to stop Ukrainian advance to key Kursk logistics hub. Russia’s strategy of using North Korean “meat waves” to slow Ukrainian advances in Kursk backfired when the 80th Air Assault Brigade’s modern weapons and tactics systematically dismantled the outdated human wave attacks.

Russian army captures six settlements in Donetsk Oblast, Russian Kursk Oblast – DeepState. Ukrainian Commander reports “record Russian losses” in ongoing meat assaults.

Ukrainian drones reportedly target Russian industrial sites near St Petersburg and Rostov. A 1,900-square-meter industrial facility in Gatchina near St Petersburg caught fire after reported Ukrainian drone strikes.

ISW: Russian security officials urge Putin to escalate war in Ukraine. Sources within the Russian presidential administration report growing elite frustration over insufficient resources for the war in Ukraine, which led to high casualties for limited territorial gains

Intelligence and Technology

Ukraine’s defense industry receives € 390 million from frozen Russian assets under Danish model. An innovative funding model pioneered by Denmark channels frozen Russian assets into Ukraine’s defense production, creating a sustainable support mechanism beyond traditional military aid.

International

Bloomberg: EU chief von der Leyen struggles to secure pre-inauguration Trump meeting. After maintaining close ties with Biden administration, Ursula von der Leyen faces both logistical and diplomatic hurdles in establishing contact with Trump’s team, as concerns mount over future trade relations and defense spending commitments.

Germany’s Scholz blocks new € 3 billion Ukraine aid package. German Defense Minister Pistorius and FM Baerbock work to mobilize the additional military aid before 23 February elections, while the Chancellor considers this unnecessary.

Zelenskyy announces additional $ 2 bn in aid secured during latest Ramstein meeting. President Zelenskyy announced eight new capability coalitions supported by 34 nations during the latest Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting.

Zelenskyy to discuss potential deployment of British peacekeepers with UK PM Starmer in Ukraine. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov says partners have responded positively to plans for deploying international peacekeepers in Ukraine.

Donald Trump claims about plans to meet with Putin. The Kremlin has welcomed Donald Trump’s initiative for diplomatic dialogue while confirming no specific meeting arrangements are yet in place.

Zelenskyy and Meloni discuss in Rome preparations for upcoming conference on rebuilding Ukraine. Following meetings with allies in Germany, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Rome to discuss security and recovery plans with Italian leadership.

Hungary threatens to veto Ukraine’s EU bid amid Russian gas transit ban dispute. This came in response to Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry stating that only two EU members, meaning Hungary and Slovakia, failed to secure alternative energy sources while others successfully adapted.

Pro-Russian Bulgarian politician claims part of territory from Ukraine, fueling Kremlin narratives. Bulgaria Revival party leader Kostadin Kostadinov has aligned with Russian messaging by declaring Ukraine’s imminent collapse and demanding the return of Southern Bessarabia (a part of Odesa Oblast) to Bulgaria.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Russian drone debris hits residential building in Kyiv, industrial facilities in Chernihiv, injuring 1 person. Ukraine’s air defenses intercepted 33 out of 72 Russian attack drones launched overnight from multiple directions, military officials report.

Occupied Donetsk Oblast sees highest Russian soldiers suicide rate, Ukrainian official reports. Local administrators track a dramatic increase in Russian military suicides, with occupied Luhansk and Donetsk becoming epicenters of a growing morale crisis among invasion forces.

Political and Legal Developments

US, UK block Russia’s oil giants in largest-ever energy sanctions package, target shadow fleet. US Department of the Treasury and United Kingdom jointly targeted Russian Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, marking the most comprehensive action yet against Russia’s ability to profit from energy exports that fund its aggression in Ukraine.

Proposed law may terminate Russian Orthodox Church operations in Estonia. Estonia’s Interior Minister advocates legal action against the Moscow-linked Orthodox Church, citing ties to Russian aggression and sovereignty concerns.

New Developments

EU warns against flights over Russia after Russian air defense causes deadly Azeri plane crash. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency cited Russian GPS jamming and air defense activities amid Ukrainian drone attacks as threats to civilian aviation.

Russian victory in Ukraine would require $ 808 billion of additional US defense spending, new analysis shows. The true price of abandoning Ukraine emerges in stark financial terms, as military analysts warn of an $808 billion Pentagon spending hike needed to counter an emboldened Russia.

No reason for Russia to stop in Ukraine if Putin thinks he is winning, US security expert warns. Military advances in Ukraine have convinced Russians they can maintain their offensive despite mounting losses, says Michael DiCianna, a research fellow at the Institute of World Politics.

Sky News: Trump’s Greenland claims could help Putin justify war against Ukraine. The recent US territorial claims over Greenland could provide Moscow with diplomatic leverage to normalize its invasion of Ukraine, while threatening NATO unity in the strategically crucial Arctic region.

Read the daily review for Fri 10 January 2025 here