ISW: Russians may delay Pokrovsk envelopment for Donetsk Oblast border push

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 23 December that Russian forces are advancing south and southwest of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, although their ultimate goal remains unclear. Analysts suggest Russia may prioritize either enveloping Pokrovsk or advancing to the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative boundary.

For months, Russia has been pushing to capture the remaining parts of Donetsk Oblast, with a focus on Pokrovsk, Kurakhove and other Ukrainian strongholds.

Geolocated footage published on 23 December confirmed recent Russian advances south of and within eastern Novovasylivka, located southwest of Pokrovsk. A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed Russian forces are moving north of Novovasylivka toward Solone and Vovkove, while also attacking Kotlyne. Attacks are reportedly concentrated on Novotroitske and Dachenske, allegedly forcing Ukrainian forces to withdraw to the Lysivka-Pishchane line southeast of Pokrovsk.

Further claims indicate Russian forces are advancing from Pustynka and Pushkine toward Ukrainka, southwest of Pushkine. ISW previously assessed these movements as part of an effort to encircle Pokrovsk through a turning maneuver from the south. However, the institute notes these advances may also aim to widen the Russian salient in preparation for a broader westward push toward Donetsk Oblast’s administrative border.

ISW noted that during his 19 December Direct Line televised press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russian forces are advancing by “square kilometers” rather than by “100, 200, 300 meters,” marking a shift in rhetoric from seizing specific settlements to emphasizing territorial gains. ISW suggests this shift may indicate that Putin has directed the military command to prioritize open-field advances and smaller settlements over larger, well-defended towns like Pokrovsk.

Geolocated evidence supports ISW’s observation that Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk administrative boundary. Putin’s long-standing goal of seizing the entirety of Donetsk Oblast remains a key political and military objective.

“An organized offensive operation against well-defended towns could slow the rate of Russian advance during a critical moment in the Kremlin’s efforts to project the inevitability of Russian military victory on the global stage,” ISW wrote.

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