Narrowly overcoming pro-Russian comeback, Moldovan President Sandu is facing tough term ahead

December 24, 2024

By Ukraine

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Moldovan President Maia Sandu begins her second term in office on Dec. 24 in unprecedented circumstances.

Russian meddling in domestic affairs is widespread, and the Kremlin makes clear their position of not acknowledging Sandu as a legitimate president of her own country. Sandu also begins her term amid an energy crisis sparked by years of dependency on Russian gas.

Meanwhile, the U.S. support for Ukraine is not a certainty under the new administration, leaving neighboring Moldova in a precarious position.

Sandu's second term in office will be riddled with diplomatic challenges and little room for error.

`Russian push to steal elections`

Leading a parliamentary republic where around 360,000 of its nearly 3 million population lives in a Russian-controlled breakaway region of Transnistria and another 130,000 in the Russian-friendly autonomous region of Gagauzia, Sandu's presidency was never an easy task.

Taking office during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Sandu led the country during the start of Russia's all-out war against neighboring Ukraine, which saw the relations between Moscow and Chisinau further deteriorate.

Sandu was able to steer Moldova toward the EU and open accession talks with the union, together with Ukraine. She now is set to lead the country through an energy crisis and prepare for the upcoming parliamentary elections set for July.

In late October, Moldovan police reportedly discovered a network of 140,000 people who received payments from Russia in return for votes against the EU during the country's referendum on Oct. 20.

The same was the case for a vote for the Kremlin's preferred presidential candidate, Alexandr Stoianoglo, who lost while garnering a considerable 45% of the votes.

The pyramid scheme was coordinated from Moscow with the help of the fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, the police said. According to Sandu, Shor's target was to influence the votes of 300,000 people. Shor rejects wrongdoing.

While Stoianoglo conceded, the Kremlin said it won't acknowledge the results of Moldova's presidential elections. There's little doubt that Russia would try it once more.

"The priority (for Sandu) should be government and political measures to help (her governing) PAS party win the best score in parliamentary elections," analyst Sorin Ioniță from Romanian think tank Expert Forum told the Kyiv Independent.

Petru Culeac from the Moldova Development Institute adds that "Russia is not used to losing what it considers its own and will try to take its revenge in the next elections."

"The government needs to destroy Shor's network, as well as other Russian actors of influence infiltrated in the state. Without this step, the next elections are already compromised," Culeac said.

Alina Radu, from investigative newspaper Ziarul de Gardă, whose newspaper published investigations on Shor's network, is also concerned with the citizens who sold their votes.

"Someone needs to have started working with those people since yesterday," she said.

She is also keen to learn from Shor's methods.

"He created a network that worked. His representatives called on his behalf to thank everyone who took part in his activities, making people feel important. Many people joined the scheme not out of poverty but out of a need to feel useful."

In addition to security concerns, in order to secure a genuinely pro-European parliament, there is general consensus that Sandu and the governing party PAS need to make major changes. They have to also start working with citizens in the north and the south of the country, including Gagauzia, argue Radu and Culeac.

"Despite the fact that Gagauzia is the region in which the EU has invested some of the greatest funds, they keep saying that they don't feel respected or heard," Culeac said.

"Sandu and PAS need to start communicating with the Gagauz elites and try to involve them in big projects they find interesting."

Culeac added that a dialogue with the Russian-controlled region of Transnistria is needed. Ineffective communication is one of the recurrent themes for which the government gets criticized.

"Sandu should not be left on her own, and those from PAS have to get out into the public space more and come with secondary messages," Romanian historian Armand Goșu said.

But communication should go hand-in-hand with quick economic policies that benefit all members of society, including the most vulnerable, said Culeac.

In the week leading up to the presidential runoff, Sandu admitted that she will also reshuffle the government team — a kept promise, although many criticised the changes as "cosmetic."

Beyond leadership, there is frustration with the slow pace of the anti-corruption fight and economic stagnation.

"People are upset with the excuses used to mask failures in the economy and the judiciary," Moldovan journalist Mariana Rață told the Kyiv Independent.

"We cannot speak for years about how we are unable to attract investment because of the war next door. Ukraine is at war and has attracted investment."

Having followed the justice system as an investigative journalist for 20 years, Rață insists the government needs to speed up the vetting process, which "has become more of a problem than a solution by now" because it disheartens the well-meaning and it enables the corrupt to go even more corrupt before they lose their jobs.

The journalist also said Sandu needs to widen her circle of consultants on the judiciary reform — "perhaps the problem is not the system but her advisers on the topic."

Other measures Rață recommends include "sending good messages to the good people in the system," give the Anti-Corruption Prosecution the headquarters they have been asking for and ask for results from those leading the anti-corruption fight — or replace them.

Without these important steps, Moldova may end up with a pro-Russian majority in the next parliament. If that happens, "they will reinstate Russian television, reinstate disinformation," Radu said.

But this could also have military repercussions. Until now, Moldova has been protected by Ukraine and Romania. With a change in the geopolitical direction of the country, "(Russian President Vladimir) Putin will not only come with propaganda experts but also with tanks," the journalist added.

`Trump card`

Sandu's attention will be equally spread between fixing the problems at home and carefully knighting a diplomatic effort to make sure the country maintains the required level of support from Ukraine and the West.

The election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president can drastically influence the country's standing, primarily by shaping the outcome of Russia's war against Ukraine next door.

Goșu said that if Ukraine does not get the support it needs and loses to Russia, Moldova will face tremendous pressure of its own.

Despite Trump's anti-Ukraine rhetoric on the campaign trail, Goșu is not certain that the new administration will serve Russian interests. "I am convinced that Putin does not find Trump convenient," he said.

On the contrary, the expert enumerated the anti-Kremlin measures Trump took in his first term, including giving Javelins to Kyiv, sanctions against Russia and the strike at Wagner mercenaries in Syria. "Ultimately, he is unpredictable," Goșu concluded — a line held by most political analysts across the world.

Beyond the military scenarios, Moldovan journalist Rață said that the U.S. may reduce its financial aid to Moldova. Alina Radu, from Ziarul de Gardă, too, argues that as a businessman, Trump's "priorities will be business and income, not human rights" and "Moldova becomes an insignificant figure because you can't do big business here" with such a small market.

Regardless of all challenges, "Sandu has to keep a decent relationship with the new U.S. administration," Ioniță said.